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- Interest rates unlikely to reach 4 . 75 % by next summer , say City economists
City economists argue financial markets are wrong to price in a rise of a full percentage point or more in Bank of England rates by next summer. Market-implied expectations point to the bank rate rising from 3.75% today to 4.75% by the end of July, possibly reaching 5% by December 2027. James Smith of ING and Sanjay Raja of Deutsche Bank both see that path as unlikely, with Raja estimating that only about 50bps of hikes is priced in once risk premia are removed. Deutsche Bank expects the rate at 4.25% by next February, while Oxford Economics forecasts 25bps rises in November and February. The BoE is widely expected to lift rates to 4% on 5 November, after UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September.
- Pound Benefits from a Hawkish BoE
- Bank of England Greene Questions Rate Restraint as Borrowing Holds Up
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene said on Oct. 20 that resilient borrowing has left her unsure whether Bank Rate is restraining demand enough to contain inflation before the Nov. 5 decision. She cited £23.6 billion in gross mortgage lending and £2.5 billion in monthly consumer credit in August, and said higher credit costs had done little to reduce borrowing, so the figures did not establish that policy was “meaningfully restrictive.” Greene argued for acting before higher energy costs become entrenched in pay and pricing, and questioned the ONS private-sector regular pay growth of 3.0%, saying forward-looking indicators point closer to 3.5%. CPI inflation was 3.1% in the year through August.
- BOE Greene keeps banging the hawkish drum , and she not alone anymore
- BOE , Bailey , Bangkok . What could possibly go wrong ? Preview and 3 questions for the Governor
- Minutes of the SONIA Stakeholder Advisory Group - 25 September 2026
The SONIA Stakeholder Advisory Group noted the unsecured overnight market remained stable, with daily volumes around £55 billion and the spread to Bank rate near 1.9 basis points. Money-market funds had seen inflows of about £15 billion since the start of the year, while the Bank of England and HM Treasury are reviewing their powers to collect sterling money market data. The Bank is considering longer RTGS and CHAPS settlement hours, nearing 24/7, and one scenario where CHAPS closes at 18:00 and reopens at 20:00 could create a gap between value dates and calendar dates. The group strongly prefers keeping the SONIA publication time at 09:00, and generally found data releases after 08:00 preferable, though 09:30 was seen as relatively late. The Bank expects to return to industry with consultation themes and next steps in the first quarter of 2027.
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- Warren urges DOJ criminal probe of Bank of America over anti-money-laundering violations
Sen. Elizabeth Warren is urging the Justice Department to open a criminal investigation into Bank of America and its executives after the bank admitted willfully violating federal anti-money-laundering laws. She called the more than $1.2 billion in penalties imposed on October 13 a “slap on the wrist” and asked Attorney General Todd Blanche to decide whether criminal charges are warranted, giving the DOJ until November 12 to respond. As part of a settlement with the Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, the bank admitted it failed to report more than $5 billion in suspicious transactions in a timely manner, with over $1 billion tied to national-security and other high-priority risks. Regulators imposed penalties including a record $750 million fine from the OCC, but no criminal charges were filed. Warren argues civil fines have become “the cost of doing business on Wall Street,” while the bank says it has invested billions in compliance and is “far along” in fixing the problems.
- Tiger Gold Drills 450.9 m @ 0.6 g/t Au from Surface at Ceibal and Steps Out 175 m to the Southwest
Tiger Gold reported assays from hole CEDDH-022 at its Ceibal target in the Quinchía Gold Project in Colombia, which intersected 450.9 m grading 0.6 g/t Au from surface and ended in mineralization. Higher-grade intervals included 9 m grading 1.4 g/t Au from 288 m downhole and 8 m grading 1.3 g/t Au from 434 m downhole. CEDDH-022 is the fourth hole on its section line to return a long interval of gold mineralization from at or near surface. Step-out hole CEDDH-029, collared 175 m southwest of CEDDH-022, has assays pending, and three rigs are drilling at Ceibal with results pending from 14 holes. The drilling is intended to support a maiden Mineral Resource estimate as part of an expanded PEA for the project.
- Caterpillar Beat Earnings and Still Dropped 9%. The AI Power Trade Just Hit the Same Wall as Software.
Caterpillar reported third-quarter results on October 29, 2026, with adjusted EPS of $7.20 beating the $7.04 consensus, while revenue of $20.68 billion was nearly in line with the $20.69 billion estimate. The stock still fell 9% before the open to $647.90, after dropping 13% in the month before the report. Revenue rose 17.3%, and Power Generation sales reached $3.421 billion, up 30%, driven by turbines and large reciprocating engines sold to data centers; operating profit included $128 million of IEEPA tariff refunds. The company gave no numeric guidance and no dollar figure for its record backlog, only repeating the $72 billion cited in August. The article notes that Vertiv and GE Vernova also slipped before the open despite big beats on October 28, when Vertiv had risen 16% after raising its full-year revenue guidance.
- Alphabet vs Microsoft: Why Free Cash Flow Just Became the Only AI Scorecard That Matters
Alphabet fell 10.49% to $290.81 and Microsoft rose 2.78% to $545.78 in premarket trading on October 29, 2026, even though both reported results the same evening and are spending heavily on AI infrastructure. Alphabet's search revenue of $63.35 billion fell short of the $64.85 billion consensus, while Google Cloud revenue jumped 103% to $30.71 billion. Alphabet's capital expenditures of $51.36 billion exceeded its $42.29 billion operating cash flow, with the gap covered by $28.7 billion in senior notes and at-the-market stock sales. Microsoft, by contrast, posted fiscal first-quarter cloud revenue of $63.9 billion and free cash flow of almost $19 billion, while Alphabet's free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion. The article argues that free cash flow is becoming the key yardstick for comparing the two companies.
- US stocks have done this after every midterm election since 1950 (incredible 19 out of 19 times). Time to be fearful?
The article cites a JP Morgan analysis finding that the S&P 500 posted a positive return over every 12-month period after a midterm election from 1950 to 2022, across 19 election cycles, with an average one-year return of 15.1%. It notes that some years delivered only low single-digit gains, such as after the 1986 election. A Nationwide survey cited in the piece found that 75% of investors believe the midterms could affect their long-term financial plan, and 40% said they had already made changes. The author stresses that past performance is not a guide to the future and that the 2026 election could be an outlier. The article also mentions hard assets such as real estate and gold in the context of policy uncertainty.
- Is Micron Stock Riskier Than It Looks?
Micron trades at 13.1 times its trailing twelve-month earnings, versus 22.6 times for the S&P 500, with a net margin of 63.8% over those twelve months. On its September 30, 2026 earnings call for fiscal Q4 2026, management said fiscal 2027 margins should expand from the first quarter on continued price increases, although those increases are expected to moderate over time. About three quarters of revenue under long-term supply agreements has a defined pricing framework. Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue reached $54.2 billion, up 379.3% year over year, with gross margin of 86.8%. The stock closed 19.0% below its highest close of the past year and trades at 8.3 times sales, down from 14.4 times at the end of June 2026; the article points to gross margin as the metric to watch in the report expected in December 2026.
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