The Fed will announce its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, and the CME FedWatch tool puts a 90% probability on holding the target range at 3.75%-4%. The statement is expected to use language similar to September's, when the Fed raised rates by a quarter point and said inflation remains elevated, while productivity growth is strong. A report on September's consumer spending and personal income, due Thursday, will offer a fresh look at the inflation picture. Markets are pricing in another quarter-point increase in December. The author notes that rate moves tend to be short-lived for high-quality stocks, so investors whose holdings may be vulnerable to rate news may want to review those positions more closely.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Keywords
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
DXY
• NeutralRelevance: medium
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/26/2026 | 102.02 |
| Change that session | +0.27% |
QQQ
• NeutralInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/26/2026 | 712.11 |
| Change that session | +1.09% |
SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/26/2026 | 765.22 |
| Change that session | +0.69% |
XAU/USD
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Gold |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/26/2026 | 4,017.27 |
| Change that session | +0.54% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Could the Fed surprise with its rate decision this week?
The Fed is expected to hold its policy rate at 3.75-4% at its 27-28/10 meeting, even though September CPI and PPI both rose more than forecast and inflation has made little progress back toward the 2% target. Chair Kevin Warsh gave no signal on 16/10 that would change market expectations, cutting the odds of an October hike to about 15%. Robert Kaplan of Goldman Sachs said doing nothing is the option with the fewest hurdles, while Claudia Sahm argued the Fed has enough reason to act this week. The 10-year Treasury yield, which topped 5.3%, the highest in 24 years, fell 0.19 percentage points to 4.95% on 22/10 as tech stocks were sold off. Fed officials remain divided, with Logan, Hammack and Kashkari having opposed the July decision to hold rates.
- Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady in October. Here's what that means for consumers
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, even as higher energy costs complicate the inflation outlook. The consumer price index rose again in September, lifting annual inflation to 3.7%, while surging oil prices tied to the U.S. war with Iran also pushed up producer prices. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% last month, its first hike since 2023, and fed funds futures priced less than a 10% chance of another hike this week. Heather Long of Navy Federal Credit Union said borrowing costs will stay very high for the foreseeable future, while Moody's Mark Zandi said higher long-term rates are hurting consumers more by weighing on refinancing, home buying and vehicle sales. Credit card APRs are likely to stay near current levels, while the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is close to 7.4%, driven more by the 10-year Treasury yield near 5%.
- Week ahead: Wall Street tests the AI boom as Big Tech reports
The week's focus is the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon, as investors look for clues on inflation and on whether AI spending can deliver sustainable returns. Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to hold rates but keep a hawkish tone, estimating September core PCE inflation rose 0.36% month over month, or about 3.14% annually. Wells Fargo also expects a pause but still sees a December hike as its base case. GDP growth is forecast at around 3% annualised. Swissquote senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said investors are increasingly worried about the cost and leverage behind AI growth, so companies showing spending discipline could be better received.
- Fed Set for Policy Meeting as Markets Predict 90% Chance Rates Stay Unchanged
The Fed enters this week's policy meeting as inflation rises again, with markets still expecting rates to be held just days before the U.S. midterm elections. Former Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder expects a 'hawkish pause,' holding rates while signaling readiness to hike again, possibly as soon as the next meeting. U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year on year in September, core CPI rose 2.6%, and wholesale prices rose more than 6%. Harvard's Ken Rogoff also expects no change, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack backs a gradual hike now to contain spreading price pressure. Policy rates currently sit at 3.75%-4%, and markets price nearly 70% odds of a 0.25 percentage point hike in December.
- Fed rate decision and Google, Microsoft and Amazon earnings: What to Watch
The week of Oct. 26 features a Federal Reserve rate decision on Wednesday, with markets pricing in roughly a 90% chance policymakers hold rates steady, while investors watch for signals on future moves as inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. On the same day, Alphabet and Microsoft report third-quarter results, with focus on Google's cloud business and custom AI chips, the threat new AI tools pose to its search advertising, and whether Microsoft's Azure growth justifies about $145 billion in spending in its last fiscal quarter. Amazon reports on Thursday, with attention on Amazon Web Services, which grew 37% last quarter, and on higher capital spending driven by memory prices.
- Gold Holds Near Three-Month Low as Investors Await Federal Reserve Decision
Gold prices were little changed in Asian trading on Monday after falling more than 4% last week, with spot gold up 0.2% to $4,005.41 per ounce. Gold had dropped below $4,000 on Friday for the first time since mid-July, posting a weekly loss of 4.1%. Brent crude rose 6.2% last week on Middle East conflict to its highest weekly close since mid-2022, then eased Monday on reports of diplomatic initiatives, while higher energy costs raise inflation concerns and the prospect of tighter monetary policy for longer. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates at its 27–28 October meeting, and CME FedWatch data shows about a 78% probability of a rate hike at the December meeting, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 5% adding pressure on gold. Silver was broadly unchanged at $53.95 per ounce, platinum fell 0.6% to $1,543.71, and LME copper fell 0.4% to $14,277.33 per tonne.
Related markets
Latest news
- One bank's Q3 profit falls nearly 80%
As of 26 October, Q3 pre-tax profits of Saigonbank, KienlongBank, BAOVIET Bank and PGBank all declined year on year, with Saigonbank's falling nearly 80%. Saigonbank reported Q3 pre-tax profit of VND 17.8 billion and nine-month pre-tax profit of nearly VND 66 billion, down nearly 75%, mainly due to weaker services and foreign exchange trading and sharply higher operating costs. Its loans to customers stood at VND 21,754 billion as of 30/6/2026, slightly lower than at end-2025, while customer deposits fell to VND 25,171 billion. BAOVIET Bank's Q3 pre-tax profit fell 41% to VND 17 billion, KienlongBank's dropped 12.7% and PGBank's fell over 10%, although KienlongBank and PGBank still posted nine-month growth. Positive results in some business lines were not enough to offset the factors weighing on profits.
- US ready to strike Iran within 96 hours if President Trump gives the order
Sources say US forces in the Middle East are ready to launch new military operations against Iran, possibly on a large scale, within 96 hours of receiving orders from President Donald Trump. The operations could go well beyond earlier strikes that targeted radars, launchers and other Iranian assets that could be quickly restored. The target list reportedly includes energy infrastructure, military sites and nuclear facilities, and officials believe an order could come before year-end, most likely after the midterm elections. Intelligence assessments suggest Iran and the Houthis would likely retaliate against US personnel and facilities if Iran is attacked first. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly pushed for new strikes, but US officials have asked him to delay.
- Wave of interest rate cuts is gaining momentum
Many banks continue to cut deposit rates and launch preferential lending packages worth tens of thousands of billions of dong, in response to the State Bank of Vietnam's directive to lower interest rate levels. VPBank cut deposit rates by a further 0.4 percentage points for 6–13 month terms, and online deposits under VND 10 billion for 6–11 months now earn 6.6% per year. Sacombank launched a VND 20,000 billion package for individual customers, cutting lending rates by 1.5–2 percentage points, after a VND 40,000 billion corporate program. MSB, VIB and VPBank also have packages of VND 10,000–15,000 billion, with lending rate reductions of 1.5–2 percentage points depending on conditions. Under Official Dispatch No. 9736/NHNN-CSTT dated 21/10/2026, banks must cut average deposit rates for new transactions of 6 months or more by at least 0.5% per year, and non-compliant banks could face penalties, including reduced credit growth targets.
- Ripple wins final US approval for national trust bank
Ripple has received final approval from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) for Ripple National Trust Bank (RNTB), completing a chartering process that began with conditional approval in December 2025. The trust bank can manage reserves backing the RLUSD stablecoin, act as collateral trustee for RLUSD holders and provide digital asset custody, while RLUSD will continue to be issued by Standard Custody & Trust Company. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said crypto and banks work better together. Circle secured final OCC approval in July, while Coinbase, Crypto.com and Bridge remain at the conditional approval stage. According to the OCC, most national trust banks do not accept deposits or make loans and do not carry FDIC insurance.
- 30 September 2026 Quarterly Activities Report
Barton Gold Holdings (ASX: BGD) completed 38,760m of 'Phase 2' drilling at its Tunkillia Gold Project in South Australia, bringing total drilling over the past 12 months to 57,653m, with several new high-grade assays reported. JORC Mineral Resource updates are pending, targeted for Q4 CY26 for gold and Q1 CY27 for silver, while a pre-feasibility study is targeted for publication by the end of Q1 CY27. Per the Optimised Scoping Study, Tunkillia could produce about 120,000oz of gold and 260,000oz of silver annually, with approximately $1.75 billion operating profit modelled over the first ~27 months at current prices. The Tolmer silver discovery has been extended to a 500m strike length, and the company holds $23.2 million in cash with no debt.
- Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates this week — but stay hawkish: CNBC survey
A CNBC survey of 16 economists and analysts found all expect the Bank of Japan to keep its policy rate at 1.25% at the end of its two-day meeting on Friday. Most expect a rate hike in December or January next year as domestic inflation and wages keep rising, with core inflation excluding fresh foods at 2.1% and inflation-adjusted wages up 1.5% from a year earlier. Some analysts see no clear sign inflation is accelerating enough to justify consecutive hikes, and say the policy board may lack consensus given the fragile domestic bond market. The 10-year JGB yield is expected to reach 3% to 3.1% by year-end, up from 2.809%, while the terminal rate is seen at 1.75% to 2% by around mid-2027.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.