The article models a $10,000 split between 14 Tesla shares and 34 SpaceX shares, assuming SpaceX acquires Tesla in an all-stock deal at a 30% premium with 3.16 SpaceX shares per Tesla share, leaving investors with about 68 SpaceX shares. Using 2031 revenue consensus of $331 billion for Tesla and $830.8 billion for SpaceX, a 10x forward price-to-sales multiple implies a combined value of $11.6 trillion, or about $452 per share in 2030 and over $30,700 for 68 shares. The author calls this a 3x-plus return over several years, but notes that the merger may not happen and revenue may fall short. Prediction market Kalshi puts the odds of a merger at 57% before April 2027 and 77% before the end of 2028, and Barclays analyst Dan Levy thinks an announcement could come before Tesla's December 6, 2026 annual meeting.
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