The column reflects on how the Philippines has repeatedly faced economic crises tied to political turmoil, from the 1983 debt crisis to coups and leadership changes, and now faces added pressure from a global geopolitical crisis. Citing First Metro Securities' Estella Villamiel, GDP growth averaged 2.6% year-to-date in 2026, one of the weaker periods outside the pandemic era. Household consumption remains the main driver but its contribution has moderated, capital formation is the primary drag on growth, and government spending and exports provide support. The fiscal deficit reached 5.8% of GDP in the first half, government debt is about 66% of GDP, and international funding is getting harder to secure. Household demand has softened in recent quarters, according to consumer sentiment, retail and vehicle sales data.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on philstar.com ↗
Keywords
GDP growthPhilippinespublic debtbudget deficithouseholds
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related news
- How worried should we be for the economy ?
The article argues that economies, markets, politics and societies face unusual volatility at once, with global growth sluggish and many major developed economies stalling well below 3 percent. Inflation remains above the 2 percent target, with eurozone inflation hitting 3.8 percent last month, its highest in three years, and the UK's consumer price index reaching 3.1 percent in August. Public debt in several advanced economies reaches or exceeds 100 percent of GDP, while bond yields are elevated globally, with 10-year US Treasuries above 5.3 percent and 30-year yields above 5.6 percent, the highest since 2002. Equity markets look fragile, as seven tech firms account for more than 30 percent of the S&P 500's market capitalization and the price-to-earnings ratio stands at 26.6, versus 16 for much of the last quarter-century. The author also flags eroding education, infrastructure and social cohesion as underlying risks.
- IMF annual meeting : Developing nations need greater digital connectivity
At the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook put global growth at 3.1% and global inflation at 4.7%. While an AI boom is lifting technology-exporting economies, developing and climate-vulnerable regions face a double hit from high energy costs and climate disasters, and over 60% of low-income nations are in or near debt distress. Delegates argued for a two-part strategy: fiscal consolidation to service debt while protecting social safety nets, and aggressive investment in digital connectivity so developing economies can share in the tech recovery. Wayne Henry, Chairman and Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica, said many developing economies need to catch up on digital connectivity to benefit from technological advances.
- IMF and World Bank meetings leave developing countries with more questions than answers
IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok offered no new answers for developing countries facing the Middle East war, the war in Ukraine, rising debt payments and a potential AI bubble. The institutions again urged shrinking fiscal deficits and accelerating reforms to attract private investment. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said advanced economies were the worst offenders for budget imbalances, and that developing countries' debt-servicing payments had more than doubled over a decade to 14% of government revenue. The World Bank said growth in developing economies had slowed to about 3.6% from 4.4%, while experts urged more inclusive growth. Nearly half the delegates at an IMF steering committee walked out when Russia's finance minister spoke.
- IMF outlook : The global economy may not be doing as badly as feared but it laden with major risks
The IMF's latest forecasts show the global economy holding up better than feared despite the Iran war, higher interest rates and an AI-driven investment boom. Global growth is projected to rise to 3.4% in 2027 from an estimated 3.1% this year, with the US doing somewhat better than forecast and China unchanged at 4%. The article warns of risks including high energy prices, extreme weather, excess spending on data-centre technology and budgets in several advanced economies that are close to exhaustion, with France facing dimmer prospects amid a bond selloff. It argues that the burden of responding to any future downturn will ultimately fall on central banks, and quotes Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who said the bond market pressure gives leaders a chance to put their finances in order.
- UK households £13,961 worse off on bills since 2021
The TUC estimates UK households have paid an extra £13,961 on bills on average since 2021, or £2,792 a year, amid soaring inflation and a difficult backdrop including the Covid crisis, war in Ukraine and war in Iran. TUC general secretary Paul Nowak said working people have borne the brunt of successive crises and that high bills are squeezing consumer spending and holding back the economy. A Resolution Foundation study found working families are £2,900 a year worse off over the past five years compared with inflation at around 2 per cent a year. Its chief economist James Smith said any new help must be targeted at the poorest families, starting with energy bills, as public finances leave less room than ever to provide support.
- HEADLINES : More criminal cases seen vs VP Sara | October 19 , 2026
The House prosecution panel expects the Ombudsman to file criminal cases against Vice President Sara Duterte and officials of her office and DepEd over alleged misuse of confidential funds, after the agency began evaluating evidence. The defense has not formally notified the impeachment court whether Duterte will testify when the trial resumes on Nov. 9. The Chinese Embassy dared lawmakers to act quickly on their threat to declare Ambassador Jing Quan persona non grata, saying it is tired of repeated warnings. As 2026 Asean chair, the Philippines will host the 20th AMMTC from Oct. 19 to 21, while nine economists polled expect the BSP to raise its key rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent at its Oct. 22 meeting. In sports, Alex Eala opens her Ningbo Open campaign against France’s Diane Parry.
Related markets
Latest news
- JPMorgan's JPM Coin, representing dollar deposits, is coming to Ethereum: Bloomberg
JPMorgan will make JPM Coin, a token representing its dollar deposits, available to institutional clients on Ethereum, according to Bloomberg. The bank says Ethereum's liquidity makes it attractive to crypto companies seeking blockchain payments and to financial firms settling trades or backing tokenized assets. The move extends JPMorgan's blockchain work beyond Base and its private Kinexys network, which processes more than $7 billion daily. The bank did not say when the token will go live on Ethereum. Meanwhile, JPMorgan is among US banks planning a shared tokenized deposit network, but it was not on Swift's list of 17 banks preparing live transactions on its blockchain ledger in July.
- Cerrado Gold Reports 21% Year-Over-Year Increase in Q3 2026 Production Results at Minera Don Nicolas
Cerrado Gold reported Q3 2026 production of 16,685 GEO at the Minera Don Nicolas (MDN) mine in Santa Cruz Province, Argentina, up 21% from 13,832 GEO in Q3 2025. Year-to-date output reached 44,942 GEO, up 23% from 36,432 GEO in the comparable 2025 period. Heap leach output held steady at 9,649 GEO, while CIL output rose to 7,036 GEO as higher-grade Calandrias material, generally above 2.5 g/t gold, was routed to the Martinetas mill. Laboratory tests on selected material showed gold recoveries of up to 95%, versus about 60% expected from heap leaching, and the company now expects full-year 2026 production at the upper end of its 50,000 to 60,000 GEO guidance while targeting a new PEA by late Q1 2027.
- Is Visa Stock Still a Buy After Gaining 14% This Year?
Visa shares hit an all-time high of $401, up about 12% over the past two weeks from $359 at the end of September and up 14% year to date. Key catalysts include approval from the People's Bank of China to set up a bankcard clearing institution in China and the move of Visa Direct's stablecoin to commercial deployment on Oct. 15. Baird and BMO Capital both raised their price targets. Visa reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Oct. 27 and has raised its dividend every year since 2009, last year by 14% to $0.67 per share. The author still considers the stock a buy ahead of earnings, citing a forward P/E of 24.
- Five things to watch in markets in the week ahead
Markets start the week with AI stocks under pressure after hotter-than-expected September inflation raised expectations of higher US rates and fed worries about debt-funded AI spending. Last week the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 11.41% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 4.48%, with CoreWeave shedding about a quarter of its value and Oracle down 9.31%. Earnings are in focus, with SpaceX and Netflix reporting on Tuesday and Meta and Tesla on Wednesday after the close. Netflix reportedly plans to cut around 6% of its workforce, roughly 1,000 roles, its biggest reduction since 2022. SpaceX has also agreed to buy spectrum licenses from Grain Management for about $8 billion, a move into the wireless market.
- eMemory/PUFsecurity Showcases OCP S.A.F.E.-Approved PUFrt at OCP Global Summit, Strengthening AI Data Center Security with Caliptra
PUFsecurity, a subsidiary of eMemory Technology, was featured at Microsoft's Caliptra Workshop on Oct. 12, the opening day of the 2026 OCP Global Summit, which drew nearly 400 attendees. Its PUFrt received OCP S.A.F.E. Scope 3 approval after an independent assessment of its resistance to physical attacks such as fault injection and side-channel attacks, and is now listed on the OCP Marketplace. PUFrt provides the physical security foundation for Caliptra, an open-source hardware Root-of-Trust architecture, from key generation to chip mass-production testing. It has already been integrated into Caliptra products from ASPEED and security systems from several memory makers and networking chip vendors. The company says the milestone advances hardware security for cloud and AI infrastructure.
- Crypto vault deposits top $10 billion as lending risks draw regulatory scrutiny
Deposits into crypto lending vaults have risen from $4 billion at the start of last year to more than $10 billion, according to the Financial Times. Each vault is run by a 'curator' who selects lending strategies through smart contracts on DeFi platforms, sets risk limits and collects fees, with typical returns of 3% to 10% and riskier strategies reaching 20% or more. Risks include illiquid or hard-to-sell collateral, automatic liquidations, hacks and coding errors, while investors may focus on headline yields. Fintechs, digital asset treasury firms and hedge funds are among the main depositors, and Bitcoin lender Two Prime launched a vault on Pareto targeting 1.5% to 2% yields, with a minimum deposit of 5 WBTC and about $10 million of its own capital absorbing initial losses. U.S. and European regulators are examining whether existing rules should apply, and the SEC has questioned vaults that hold securities.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.