New Zealand's annual inflation came in at 3.7% in the year to the September quarter, a little below forecasts but still too high, making a Reserve Bank (RBNZ) rate rise a matter of when rather than if. Petrol was the main driver, up 19% in the year to September, with the average unleaded price at NZ$3.56 a litre according to Gaspy. Inflation has been outside the target band for a year and the RBNZ has raised rates twice in the past six months, with the official cash rate now at 2.75%; a 25 basis point hike at the October 28 meeting was considered 75% likely. ASB senior economist Mark Smith expects 25bp hikes in October and December, taking the OCR to a 3.25% peak. The result is bittersweet for the National party and its governing coalition, as voting is underway for the November 7 election and cost of living remains a key issue.
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Related tickers and likely impact
NZD/USD
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/21/2026 | 0.57007 |
| Change that session | +0.29% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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