Blackstone's third-quarter AUM rose 10% to nearly $1.4 trillion, with $63.3 billion of inflows and fee-related earnings up 6% to almost $1.6 billion. Distributable earnings fell 9% to $1.7 billion and distributable EPS fell 13% to $1.52, as net realizations dropped 34%, cutting the variable dividend to $1.12 per share from $1.29. The CFO anticipates a significant step-up in net realizations in the fourth quarter, including the sales of multiple companies. The shares, around $117, are down 28.5% from their 52-week high and trade below 20 times the $5.95 distributable EPS of the last 12 months. The author sees this as a reasonable price for a leading asset manager, citing AI investing and the growth of private wealth and private credit platforms, while noting risks from heavy AI infrastructure bets and private credit's recent growing pains.
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