Anthropic's IPO filing lists backers that read like a roster of Big Tech companies. Michael Burry, the investor known for “The Big Short,” says that list is exactly the risk.
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Michael Burry still holds put options against Palantir, which expire between June and December 2027. The stock closed at a record $209.05 on Oct. 9 and traded near $195 at the time of writing. Guidance calls for third-quarter revenue of $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion, about 83% growth, but Palantir has typically beaten its top guidance by 6% to 7%, which could mean about $2.3 billion. U.S. commercial revenue rose 149% to $764 million in the second quarter, and keeping management's target of at least $3.424 billion for 2026 on track implies about $930 million in the third quarter. The article notes that even a strong report would not make the stock cheap at about 166 times past earnings, though it could make Burry's under-$50 view harder to accept.
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Investor Michael Burry, known for his bet against the U.S. housing market that generated 700 million USD for his fund's investors during 2007 and 2008, is again betting against AI stocks. He has moved up his timeline for a possible AI bubble burst and shifted short positions in Micron and Nebius Group into put options. Wall Street remains bullish, with a majority of buy ratings on Nvidia and Micron, which are expected to gain 56% and 78% over the next 12 months, while the S&P 500 is up nearly 100% since the start of 2023. Burry cited an Ares Management report saying AI momentum depends on AI spending staying strong, while tech giants plan to spend more than 700 billion USD on AI infrastructure this year. The article says a market pullback is possible, but the long-term AI outlook remains bright.
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Michael Burry, who bet against the housing market in 2008, wrote in his newsletter that statistically the market reminds him of 2000. His market breadth data shows 55% of stocks sit 20% below their 10-year highs, with the dot-com bubble the only comparable case at 71%. The article says that, as after 2000, recent AI winners could fall while lagging “old economy” stocks rise. It notes investors do not need to sell everything for cash, but those heavily concentrated in AI or semiconductor stocks that soared 100% in the past year might consider diversifying, such as trimming AI holdings, adding beaten-down blue chips, or adding long-term bonds yielding above 5%. It also recalls that many dot-com winners fell over 90% or went bankrupt.
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