Morgan Stanley’s October 20 outlook projects that daily refinery capacity sidelined for planned work will rise by 3.4 million barrels by the second quarter of 2027. The increase reflects maintenance postponed during a period of strong refining margins, which leaves more work for later. The bank says this deferred maintenance could limit fuel availability even if war-related disruptions ease, making inventory recovery a key factor. It expects refinery output to improve late in 2026, but its outlook puts fourth-quarter gasoil supply below demand, with a possible surplus in early 2027 that may not restore all lost stocks. The forecast covers planned refinery work only, not all fuel exports or total global supply.
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DXY
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: medium
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/21/2026 | 101.70 |
| Change that session | 0.00% |
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