Elon Musk now expects SpaceX’s annual recurring revenue to reach $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027. Short seller Jim Chanos calculates the goal implies a 1-2x revenue-to-capex ratio, versus about 0.3x for the industry, and puts SpaceX’s Q3 annualized AI revenue at $19.5 million per MW, well below the $40-50M figures floated during the quarter. SpaceX’s Q3 AI capex was $16 billion, while the plan would need roughly $500 billion for 10 GW of new capacity. The superintelligence segment brought in $7.56 billion in Q3, up 830% from a year ago, and SpaceX ended the quarter with $90 billion in cash and marketable securities, less than a fifth of that bill. The author argues much of the stock’s rally rests on a goal its current numbers don’t yet support, and that the next few reports will show whether AI capex and revenue per MW are moving toward those levels.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Keywords
SpaceXElon MuskAI investmentearnings
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related news
- SpaceX Q3 Sales Rose 161% in Q3. Here's What Starlink, Starship, and AI Results Reveal About the Stock.
SpaceX reported third-quarter sales of 14.58 billion dollars, above the 12.72 billion dollar consensus, and diluted earnings of 0.35 dollars per share versus a 0.13 dollar estimate. Starlink's average revenue per user rose to 69 dollars a month from 66 dollars, and the segment's sales grew 69% with operating profit nearly doubling. On the earnings call, Musk said the next Starship flight is expected in November, when SpaceX will attempt to catch both the booster and upper stage, with upper-stage reflight and in-orbit refueling planned early next year. AI revenue reached 7.6 billion dollars, up from 2.6 billion last quarter, but AI capex rose from 15.8 billion to 16.4 billion dollars, and the CFO guided to total company capex of 35 billion to 40 billion dollars next quarter. The article notes that while many results were strong, cash-basis financials look considerably worse, and whether the spending will generate sufficient returns for shareholders is the key question.
- SpaceX Agrees to $40 Billion Chip-Financing Deal With Apollo
SpaceX signed a roughly $40 billion equipment-finance lease with Apollo Global Management to fund chips for its AI plans, according to a filing on Monday. The fixed rate will be set at pricing, which has not yet taken place. The deal is expected to close before year-end, with the leases starting in the first half of next year. Elon Musk said the deal would help finance purchases of Nvidia GPUs. The financing comes amid a turbulent week for AI debt markets, where investors are demanding larger premiums over concerns about rapid AI spending and limited profits so far, which disrupted pricing talks. The SpaceX debt is structured as private bonds issued by an off-balance-sheet entity.
- Musk Says SpaceX Locked In $40 Billion for Chips, a Win for Nvidia: “We’re Investment Grade”
Elon Musk said SpaceX (SPCX) has closed $40 billion of mostly callable debt to buy GPUs for deliveries in Q1 and Q2 2027, though Reuters noted it was unclear whether pricing had been agreed and Musk named no lenders, rate or maturity. Musk credited SpaceX's investment-grade status and its Starlink and launch revenue, while third-quarter results showed $51.3 billion in cash, $38.6 billion in marketable securities, $19.6 billion of capex and $9.6 billion of operating cash flow. If all $40 billion went to Nvidia, it would equal about 6% of Nvidia's fiscal 2028 revenue estimate, a figure the article treats as a ceiling since orders and timing are undisclosed. Musk also said debt markets have almost entirely shut for companies without substantial non-AI revenue and predicted more than 200 neoclouds will consolidate, a risk for CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS).
- Forget Mars, SpaceX’s Most Important Business Has Nothing To Do With Space (At Least For Now)
SpaceX’s Super Intelligence (AI) segment generated $7.56 billion in third-quarter revenue, up 830%, making it the largest segment by revenue and passing Starlink. By the article’s calculation, AI’s share of segment revenue rose from 33.1% in Q2 to 51.9% in Q3, with Cursor contributing $608 million. Capital spending reached $19.6 billion in the quarter, of which about 83.7% went to AI by the article’s calculation, while Starlink still earned $2.37 billion of the company’s $2.79 billion operating income. The Space segment lost $7 million on $1.77 billion of revenue, and Musk now describes Mars as delayed. The article argues that AI’s lead on the ground may be temporary, and the stock fell 9% on Oct. 22 on capex concerns, according to Seeking Alpha.
- CNBC Daily Open: AI spending fears haunt markets before Halloween
U.S. stocks fell as concerns over AI spending weighed on the market, with the Nasdaq down more than 2% and the S&P 500 down 1.2%, while oil prices jumped, with Brent settling at $113.17 per barrel and WTI at $99.47. Meta shares slumped nearly 7% after the company reported negative free cash flow of $2.12 billion in the third quarter and raised the bottom of its full-year capex range to $135–145 billion from $130 billion. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell more than 17 basis points to 4.972%, dipping below 5% for the first time in about a month. Elon Musk has committed roughly $366 million to the 2026 election cycle across at least 40 races, with at least $276 million going to Republican groups and his America PAC, while SpaceX has received at least $6.78 billion in federal work so far this year. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said a memory surplus is unlikely by 2029, despite a recent sell-off in memory stocks.
- 3 reasons SpaceX could fall short of $1 trillion revenue goal
Host Ejaaz Ahamadeen outlines three obstacles that could keep Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPCX) from reaching a $1 trillion revenue goal. First, capex of $35 billion to $40 billion raises funding questions, with Tesla's balance sheet cited at about $43 billion and rumors that Musk is seeking $30 billion to $50 billion before the Anthropic IPO. Second, moving from GB300 to Vera Rubin GPUs may prove technically harder, as the host doubts Jensen Huang's claim that the new chips take about 5 minutes to bring online and notes that next-gen GPUs have historically taken time to deploy. Third, revenue forecasts diverge sharply: JP Morgan projects $254 billion next year, while Musk's estimate is $500 billion to $1 trillion.
Related markets
Latest news
- Intel vs. Nvidia: Flat Trends vs. Rapid Expansion in Revenue
Intel grew revenue 25% in its latest quarter, far behind the 106% year-over-year rise Nvidia posted in its most recent quarter. Intel has begun installing specialized production tools at a new Arizona facility and faces a major lawsuit before the U.S. Supreme Court over the management of its employee retirement investment plans. Nvidia committed $1 billion over five years to independent scientific research and expanded its share repurchase authorization by $150 billion. The article notes that Nvidia faces charges of circular financing, while Intel's 18A process and improving foundry outlook could signal that its revenue struggles are ending. Intel trades at 59 times forward earnings versus 23 for Nvidia, and the article argues Nvidia's faster growth at a lower valuation still stands unless Intel's rebound continues or the financing concerns materialize, in which case investors would need to revisit the comparison.
- Canada’s Draft Stablecoin Rules Cap Redemption Fees at 1% and Ban Yield
Canada published draft stablecoin regulations on October 24, opening a 60-day comment period that runs to about December 23, with the rules targeted to take effect in fall 2027. Under the draft, issuers must hold one-to-one reserves with Canadian custodians, redeem coins within three business days with fees capped at 1%, and cannot pay interest for holding a coin, including through third-party arrangements. The Bank of Canada would register and supervise issuers, with penalties of up to C$10 million for very serious violations, and the notice assumes about five issuers and 30 other payment companies would fall under oversight. The Stablecoin Act became law on March 26, 2026. The article also notes that the U.S. GENIUS Act, signed July 18, 2025, likewise bars issuers from paying interest to holders.
- Why JetBlue Stock Dived by Almost 10% on Monday
JetBlue (JBLU) shares fell nearly 10% on Monday after The Wall Street Journal reported that a group of senior creditors, not named in the report, had engaged financial advisor PJT Partners and law firm Akin. The article notes the airline carries heavy debt: long-term borrowings topped $8.8 billion at the end of June, against slightly over $2 billion in cash and short-term investments, while the market cap stands at $894 million. A JetBlue representative told the newspaper the company is focused on growing revenue and becoming profitable. JetBlue moved its third-quarter results forward to Monday afternoon, and the stock rose about 10% in after-hours trading. The author says the post-earnings rise may not last, and describes the company as facing significant financial challenges and high restructuring risk.
- Vanguard's Growth ETF Usually Beats the Market After a Lagging Year. I'd Own It, but Not for a 2027 Rebound.
The Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG) hit a record of $92.64 on Oct. 6 but has since fallen about 6% to roughly $87, while the S&P 500 is down less than 3% over the same period. The fund is up about 7% in 2026 versus about 11% for the index, and if the gap holds through December, it would be the first year since 2022 that it trails the S&P 500 on price alone. The fund holds a large share of its assets in its top 10 stocks, many of them tech companies, and several, including Tesla (down about 17%), are lagging this year. Rising interest rates also weigh on growth stocks, since their value depends on profits expected far in the future. The author notes the fund has beaten the S&P 500 in 16 of 21 years from 2005 to 2025, but says he would not rely on 2027 to erase this year's gap.
- Joby Aviation Stock Just Hit a 52-Week Low. History Says This Happens Next
Joby Aviation (JOBY) has fallen from about $13 at the start of 2026 to below $5, hovering near its 52-week low of about $4.40. Its first-ever coast-to-coast autonomous flight and its plan to acquire Resonant Sciences have done little to lift the shares this year, and the decline of similar stock Archer Aviation suggests waning enthusiasm for eVTOL companies. The article notes that past downturns were followed by sharp rebounds, such as in 2025, when a $250 million Toyota investment and other news pushed the stock above $10 and up to around $20 before valuation concerns pulled it back. The author argues investors now want to see actual bookings rather than announcements, and that a milestone such as FAA type certification could push the stock back into double digits. He says the stock may be worth a look for aggressive investors who can tolerate volatility.
- Stock Market Today, Oct. 26: AI Optimism Lifts Nasdaq as Tech Stocks Rebound
The S&P 500 gained 0.70% to 7,677, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.82% to 26,169, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.28% to 52,362 as AI optimism returned and oil prices fell. Gold rose 0.46% to $4,026.30 and the 10-Year Treasury yield rose 0.04% to 5%, with investors favoring Real Estate and Technology while Communication Services faced selling pressure. Anthropic filed its S-1 to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker "ANT," and its strong revenue growth figures eased fears that the AI boom was losing steam, helping revive tech stocks. Tesla rose over 5% after Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight and raised its price target from $370 to $450, while Meta fell about 2% after disclosing plans to raise up to $95 billion for AI infrastructure. Investors are now looking ahead to Microsoft's earnings and the Federal Reserve's rate decision this week.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.