Crude oil prices edged lower on October 26 as Saudi Arabia's Defense Minister held talks with Iranian leaders in Tehran aimed at easing tensions. Brent fell $0.91 to $115.81 a barrel after briefly topping $117, while U.S. WTI dropped $1.51 to $101.76 a barrel, and prices have risen about 12% since the start of the month. The talks came as Yemen's Houthis, Iran's allies, repeatedly attacked Saudi Arabia, raising concerns about supply disruptions as global inventories have fallen sharply after eight months of conflict. Michael Alfaro of Gallo Partners said the real challenge lies in refining capacity, which could become a structural issue lasting into 2027.
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Brent crude rose 3.1% to close at USD 116.72 a barrel on October 23, its highest close since April 29, while WTI gained 3.8% to USD 103.27. Investors increasingly believe the US could resume strikes on Iran in the coming weeks, after President Donald Trump said the US was not negotiating with Iran and that something would happen “fairly soon”. US officials told The New York Times that the US and Israel had planned new strikes after the midterm elections. For the week, Brent gained 6.2%, its third straight weekly rise, while WTI added 2%. Iran-backed Houthi forces continued attacks on Saudi Arabia, and the US State Department ordered non-essential staff to leave the country.
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- Oil slides over 2% as traders weigh Saudi attack risks, demand destruction
U.S. crude fell over 2% on Monday as investors weighed the risk of further attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure against the possibility that high prices could erode demand. West Texas Intermediate dropped 2.19% to $101 a barrel and Brent fell 1.89% to $114.51, after a sharp rally on Friday following Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. The Houthis said they had targeted the main airport in Riyadh and oil facilities, and Saudi authorities said they intercepted more missiles and drones on Sunday. Michael Alfaro of Gallo Partners estimated the geopolitical risk premium at about $20 a barrel, warning that a major strike on the East-West pipeline or refining infrastructure could push prices higher, though further gains would likely cut demand. He also flagged refining capacity as a longer-term challenge, while U.S. producers remain cautious about raising capital spending.
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