Tesla shares have risen 82.0% over three years and trade at US$374.58. The article questions whether this valuation is supported by current sales or mainly by expectations tied to AI, robotics, Cybercabs and a possible merger with SpaceX. With Q3 revenue of US$28.05b, Tesla trades at about 14.3x price-to-sales, versus an auto industry average near 0.5x and a peer group around 1.1x. The Fair Ratio model still flags the 14.3x multiple as elevated, suggesting the share price embeds very high expectations.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Keywords
TSLAvaluationmergers and acquisitionsSpaceX
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
TSLA
▼ Likely negativeTesla, Inc.
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary |
| Industry | Automobile Manufacturers |
| Market cap | $1.4T |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 374.67 |
| Change that session | -3.05% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Why a Merger With Tesla Could Be a Disaster for SpaceX
The article argues that a merger between Elon Musk's SpaceX and Tesla could be unfavorable for SpaceX investors. Both boards have formed special committees to review the deal, and Musk has recused himself while calling a combination “a good idea.” In the third quarter, SpaceX revenue more than doubled on growth in its AI infrastructure business, while Tesla revenue was flat at $28 billion, automotive revenue fell 3% to $20.5 billion, and vehicle deliveries dropped 2% to 486,532. The author says Tesla's valuation rests almost entirely on future products such as Optimus and self-driving, so SpaceX investors could overpay in a merger, and concludes they should oppose it until Tesla's valuation falls or its autonomy businesses show a clear financial impact.
- Buy, Hold, or Sell Tesla Stock After Q3 Earnings & SpaceX Merger Talks?
Tesla shares fell on Thursday despite better-than-expected Q3 results, as investors questioned whether its AI and robotics initiatives can justify its premium valuation; TSLA trades at over 200X forward earnings and more than 14X forward sales. Adjusted Q3 EPS was $0.48, above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.45 but down from $0.50 a year earlier. Revenue was $28.04 billion, slightly above estimates of $27.77 billion, while operating income fell 56% year over year to $718 million as operating expenses rose 39%. Management also cut its full-year capital expenditure outlook from more than $25 billion to $20 billion, and the Zacks consensus FY2026 EPS estimate has declined 5% over 60 days, from $1.78 to $1.69. The article cites stronger vehicle deliveries, improving automotive margins and a possible SpaceX merger as potential catalysts.
- Elon Musk SpaceX - Tesla merger math doesnt add up
Fortune's Shawn Tully argues that a proposed SpaceX-Tesla merger would be extremely dilutive for SpaceX shareholders, since SpaceX's GAAP profit per share would barely rise even as its bottom line grows while Tesla's drops. With Tesla's market cap at $1.52 trillion and a 30% acquisition premium, the deal would value Tesla at $1.98 trillion, against SpaceX's $2.14 trillion valuation, making it almost a merger of equals. SpaceX would need to issue shares equal to 92% of its outstanding stock, raising its share count from 13.1 billion to 25 billion and giving Tesla's sellers nearly half of its future earnings, while Tesla booked just $3.28 billion in GAAP net profit over the past four quarters. The newsletter also reports a worldwide market selloff as tensions with Iran looms, with Nasdaq futures down 1.82%.
- Cold Water: Tesla and SpaceX Merger “Won’t Add Much Value” per Gary Black
Gary Black, managing partner of The Future Fund, argues that an all-stock Tesla–SpaceX deal at about $420 per Tesla share, roughly 10% above the current price, would add little value. Tesla trades at 191.6x forward earnings, well above its three-year average of 135.1x and above SpaceX's multiple, so the combined company would likely be valued at SpaceX's lower level. Tesla's normalized EPS fell from $3.12 in fiscal 2023 to $1.66 in fiscal 2025, with analysts expecting $2.17 in fiscal 2027. Musk said special committees at both companies are studying the idea and that he thinks it would be a good idea, but no terms have been agreed.
- Musk backs SpaceX-Tesla merger idea as both boards form special committees
Musk said on SpaceX's third-quarter earnings call that he thinks a SpaceX-Tesla merger would be a good idea, and that both companies have formed special committees of independent directors at shareholders' request. He cannot join those talks as a conflicted party, and he stressed a merger is not a certainty. Barclays analyst Dan Levy said a tie-up has become the consensus expectation, and that Tesla's annual meeting, which must be held by Dec. 6, is the appropriate venue for a shareholder vote, though a delayed announcement could push a deal out 6 to 12 months. At values of about $2.1 trillion for SpaceX and $1.5 trillion for Tesla, Levy estimated Musk would own about 37% of the combined company and 56% of its vote, and each Tesla share would be worth about 0.7 SpaceX shares before any premium.
- SpaceX CEO Elon Musk's Approval Required in Potential Merger With Tesla
Related markets
Latest news
- HSBC rolls out its first stablecoin to over 3 million everyday app users
HSBC has launched RedCoin (RCHKD), its first stablecoin, on its PayMe app, letting more than 3.3 million users send money to friends and family and pay at over 100,000 merchants. Users will be able to activate a stablecoin wallet in the app over the coming days. RedCoin will be fully backed by high-quality liquid assets held in separate accounts. The rollout follows the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's April decision to grant its first stablecoin issuer licenses to HSBC and Anchorpoint Financial, a Standard Chartered-led venture. HSBC plans to add a RedCoin wallet to its Hong Kong mobile banking app later this year, allowing customers to buy tokenized investment products, including a new share class of its existing Hong Kong dollar money market fund.
- TCEX takes another step forward in its crypto-asset licensing roadmap
TCEX received approval from the Cybersecurity Department (Ministry of Public Security) on 23/10/2026 for its level-4 information system security proposal, per document No. 5490/BCA-A05 dated 12/10/2026. The milestone meets one of the key technology requirements to take part in the pilot crypto-asset market under Resolution 05/2025/NQ-CP. TCEX directly controls and operates core systems in Vietnam, including order matching, asset custody and transaction monitoring, with encryption keys stored domestically and multi-party signing. The company was established on 05/05/2025 with TCBS as a founding shareholder and was confirmed on 04/05/2026 to have met the first-round document requirements under No. 5547/BTC-UBCK. It is now completing the remaining second-round conditions and says it aims to meet international standards such as ISO 27001, SOC 2 and CCSS.
- The Hardware Ceiling: ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent Bet $35B on the RTX PRO 5500
According to a Reuters report from October 20, ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent have together placed orders for over 3 million export-compliant NVIDIA workstation GPUs, with a combined list price above $35 billion, which the article says is double the global production cap. Total Chinese orders for the RTX PRO 5500 have exceeded 6 million units, a potential market value of over $70 billion, yet NVIDIA has told partners it can fulfill only 5-10% of requested volume. The global production cap for the RTX PRO 5500 is 3 million units for 2027, so even diverting all global output to China would fall short. The Blackwell-based card has 21,760 CUDA cores and 84GB of GDDR7 memory, and its export compliance lets it serve as a legal high-performance compute option in China. The article argues that silicon has become the primary point of control in the AI race, so deploying large-scale models increasingly depends on hardware procurement.
- The License Countdown: Mistral Large 4 and the $20M Question
Mistral Large 4, a 1-trillion-parameter model announced in public preview on October 6, had not published its weights or commercial license as of October 23, Day 22 of the 31-day window the company set for an end-of-month release. Hugging Face model cards still show 'Coming soon' for both fields. Industry reports suggest Mistral may move from the permissive Apache 2.0 license used for Mistral Large 3 to a custom framework, joining the 'Club of Four' of StepFun, Meta, Moonshot AI and DeepSeek, which recently set a $20 million monthly revenue threshold for commercial use. Under this model, a model can be downloaded but deployment limits apply once a licensee reaches significant scale, so a business with volatile revenue could exceed the threshold after one strong quarter. The article argues that this turns model selection into a procurement risk, and that the license terms will matter as much as the benchmarks.
- Nasdaq, Dow, S&P 500 Futures Drop Premarket: NVDA, AMD, META, CRWV, MRNA, WDC, BE In Focus
U.S. stock futures slipped premarket on Friday after a sharp chip-stock sell-off raised concerns that the AI trade could lose near-term momentum, with Dow futures down 0.60% and S&P 500 futures down 0.23%. On Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.9%, while oil rose amid escalating geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude around $114 a barrel. Meta Platforms dropped more than 7% after raising its annual AI spending forecast and planning to issue new shares, while Nvidia fell 4.4%, and CEO Jensen Huang said there is a scarcity of capital for AI infrastructure. CoreWeave (CRWV) hit a 17-month low of $53.50 on concerns over debt, and Moderna (MRNA) plunged nearly 18% to $202.63. Before the open, SK Hynix rose almost 5% and Western Digital fell about 2% despite beating fiscal first-quarter earnings expectations.
- Cysic dangles a 10% bounty, hacker pours loot into Tornado Cash
The wallet linked to the Cysic bridge exploit sent about $744,000 in ETH and BNB to Tornado Cash on Friday, after the Cysic Foundation offered the attacker a 10% bounty in exchange for returning 275.872 ETH (about $665,000). PeckShield data show the address transferred 300 ETH and 30.4 BNB. The hacker exploited a bridge vulnerability to mint 10 million CYS tokens on BNB Smart Chain; Cysic suspended the bridge, blacklisted the recipient and froze about 2.8 million of the new tokens. The foundation said its mainnet and existing user assets were unaffected. Tornado Cash pools deposits from many addresses, making the funds harder to trace, and the attacker's Ethereum wallet held just $45 in ETH at press time.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.