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- RBI MPC minutes : Economists maintain back - to - back repo rate hike stance
Economists on Thursday expect the RBI to keep hiking rates back-to-back, as the October MPC minutes signalled a more hawkish tone that leans toward future risks and tightening. SBI Research still expects a 50 bps hike in December, either as a straight 50 bps repo increase or as a 25 bps repo hike combined with an asymmetric widening of the LAF corridor. Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh of SBI warned that broadening inflation and persistent rupee weakness call for close RBI monitoring, while Radhika Rao of DBS Bank said the door stays open for a back-to-back hike in December as inflation is set to reach 6 per cent in CY Q4. The rupee has strengthened about 1.5 per cent against the USD this month on forex regulatory measures and IPO inflows, though bond yields remain high and may come under pressure again as oil supply fears return.
- Indian bonds steady after RBI minutes signal more rate hikes
- SBI Research retains call for 50 - bps December rate hike amid broadening inflationary pressures
SBI Research maintains its call for a 50 bps repo rate hike in December, pointing to persistent inflation, elevated crude prices and the RBI's move to a tighter policy stance, despite the central bank ruling out near-term cuts. Its review of the October MPC minutes finds Governor Sanjay Malhotra emphasising future risks and the chance of further tightening. The report lays out two paths: a 50 bps hike to 6 per cent, or a 25 bps hike to 5.75 per cent with the LAF corridor widened asymmetrically (MSF at 6.25 per cent, SDF unchanged at 5.50 per cent). The number of commodities making up 75 per cent of CPI weight climbed from 25 in August to 31 in September, showing price pressures spreading, and inflation is seen peaking below 6.5 per cent in November. The next MPC meeting is due on December 2–4.
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Ukrainian President Zelensky said Beijing has influence over Moscow and should use it to end the war, and that a planned meeting of the US, Chinese and Russian leaders must not lead to the partition of Ukraine. A trilateral summit has been proposed on the sidelines of APEC in Shenzhen on 18-19 November, though no details have been announced. Zelensky said US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner agreed to hold trilateral expert-level talks among Kyiv, Washington and Moscow in the first half of November, possibly in Abu Dhabi. Moscow said in principle it agreed to resume talks after 10 November, while Kyiv refuses to cede any territory it controls and Moscow demands that Ukraine withdraw from Donbas. Zelensky said he is ready to accept freezing the front lines, provided there are security guarantees from Washington and Europe.
- France Deploys 70,000 Police Amid Fears of Widespread Riots
The French government is deploying about 70,000 police nationwide on Oct. 24, roughly 10,000 more than last weekend, ahead of expected protests in major cities. The force includes elite police, mounted officers, helicopters, drones, armoured vehicles and water cannon trucks. Interior Minister Laurent Nunez warned that some groups are using social media to call for attacks on public buildings. The protests, which began with student demands over learning conditions, drew over 500,000 people on Oct. 17, and about 2,700 people have been arrested since then. Paris extended its night curfew to Oct. 26 and Lyon banned gatherings in central areas, but UNEF and the Yellow Vest movement still call for marches.
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US consumer sentiment edged down to 48.0 in October, near a record low, as price increases linked to the Middle East conflict weighed on households, according to a University of Michigan survey. Sentiment among independents fell sharply to 42.4 from 47.7 in September, just above May's record low of 40.6, while scores among Democrats and Republicans improved. Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 4.7%, and expectations for the next five years increased to 3.5%. Survey director Joanne Hsu warned that persistently elevated inflation expectations could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring inflation to its 2% target, and the Fed is due to meet next week with the policy rate widely expected to stay at 3.75%-4.00%.
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The author compares the Soviet Union with Iran after reading On the Edge of Empire: From Brezhnev to Putin by journalist Salam Musafir. He argues the two authoritarian systems, one secular and one religious, share weaknesses: a gap between official rhetoric and everyday life, economic stagnation, and costs from foreign ambitions. He says Iranians, especially younger generations, are demanding fair incomes, jobs and personal freedoms, and that grievances such as those illustrated by the 2022 case of Mahsa Amini cannot all be dismissed as the work of foreign agents. While he does not treat every opposition claim as unquestionable, he says their recurring economic complaints deserve examination. He notes that history does not simply repeat itself, but political systems can differ in ideology while sharing the same sources of weakness.
- CBN okay JPMorgan to establish merchant bank in Nigeria
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has granted Approval-in-Principle to JPMorgan to establish JPMorgan Merchant Bank Nigeria Limited, but the bank must meet further requirements and obtain a final operating licence before it can begin business. Michael Akuka, Director of Corporate Communications and Investor Relations at the CBN, said this is only the first stage, with registration with the Corporate Affairs Commission and other operational arrangements still required. The CBN also approved Adedapo Adedayo Olagunju as managing director, along with several non-executive and independent non-executive directors. Governor Olayemi Cardoso said the goal is a stable, competitive and internationally connected financial system, following the completion of the banking sector recapitalisation exercise.
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The Mexican peso rebounded against the U.S. dollar on Friday but still finished the week weaker. Banco de México's benchmark was 18.6601 pesos per dollar on Oct. 23, up from 18.5045 on Oct. 16, a 0.84% rise in the peso-per-dollar quote that equals a 0.83% drop in the peso's dollar value. The rate fell from 18.7134 on Oct. 22 to Oct. 23, implying a roughly 0.3% daily gain for the peso. INEGI said its Global Economic Activity Indicator rose 0.6% from July and 3.5% year on year in August, using seasonally adjusted figures. The University of Michigan put its final October Consumer Sentiment Index at 48.0, compared with 48.1 in September.
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