The S&P 500 has more than doubled from its 2022 bear-market low, but its Shiller CAPE ratio hit 41, close to the all-time high of 44.2 at the dot-com peak. The U.S.-Iran conflict has closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing WTI crude above $103 per barrel, and September CPI inflation rose to 3.7%, prompting the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points. Higher rates also threaten AI infrastructure, with CoreWeave stock down more than 70% from its peak, Firmus canceling its IPO, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF down 27%. The author thinks further downside is ahead, though the S&P 500 was only 2.5% below its peak and volatility is normal, with a 10.7% compound annual return since 1957. Buying stocks during the scariest moments has been a winning strategy over seven decades.
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S&P 500valuationinterest ratesFedoil prices
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Related tickers and likely impact
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/27/2026 | 721.23 |
| Change that session | +1.27% |
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/27/2026 | 769.72 |
| Change that session | +0.57% |
NVDA
▼ Likely negativeNvidia
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Market cap | $5.1T |
| Close on 10/27/2026 | 217.88 |
| Change that session | +0.87% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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