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- 1 Number Every UPS Investor Should Watch in Q3 Earnings
The article argues that adjusted operating profit margin is the key metric for judging UPS's shift from lower-margin Amazon deliveries toward higher-margin e-commerce deliveries. After raising guidance, UPS expects full-year revenue of $91.2 billion and adjusted operating profit of about $8.65 billion, which implies a 9.48% margin, below the 9.6% initially forecast. Most of the revenue increase is likely due to fuel surcharges, and the net difference between surcharges and fuel and third-party costs was $429 million, roughly equal to the rise in profit guidance. Management has guided to a 7.5% full-year adjusted operating margin for U.S. Domestic Package, and the article says failing to meet these levels would suggest margins are not progressing as hoped.
- Leaner Machine , Heavier Costs : Can FedEx Deliver Margin Growth on Oct . 28 After Freight Spinoff ?
FedEx reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday, Oct. 28, after the bell, its first report since the June 1 Freight spinoff and its switch to a calendar fiscal year. Adjusted EPS of $6.31 beat the $5.95 consensus, marking five straight EPS beats, while revenue rose 12.5% to $25.01 billion. Operating income fell 21.94% as $205 million in Freight separation costs weighed on results. Interim CFO Claude Russ said Q3 will be the seasonally weakest quarter, with a $200 million pilot-contract drag on margins. Network 2.0 aims to route 65% of eligible volume through optimized stations before peak, targeting $2 billion in savings by the end of 2027.
- UPS beats quarterly expectations, raises full-year guidance again
UPS reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.69 per share, above the $1.63 expected, and revenue of $22.9 billion versus $22.29 billion expected. Net income was $1.16 billion, or $1.37 per share, down from $1.31 billion, or $1.55, a year earlier. The company raised its full-year consolidated revenue projection to about $92.6 billion from $91.2 billion and forecasts fourth-quarter revenue of $25.7 billion. Domestic revenue rose 4.5%, international revenue 7.1%, and supply chain solutions 18.2%, driven mainly by forwarding and logistics, including healthcare. CEO Carol Tomé said UPS is entering the holiday shipping season 'from a position of strength' with the most automated and efficient network in its history.
- UPS Stock Is Down 57% From Its Record. Is It a Buy Before Its Oct. 27 Report?
UPS shares trade near $100, about 57% below their all-time closing high of $232.11, pushing the dividend yield to roughly 6.5% on a $1.64 quarterly payout. Management expects 2026 adjusted EPS of about $7.22, down about 44% from $12.94 in 2022, after the Amazon volume cut finished in June. In the second quarter, U.S. domestic revenue rose 6% and the segment's adjusted operating margin widened to 8%, helped by cost programs expected to deliver about $3 billion in 2026. Free cash flow is projected at about $5.5 billion against roughly $5.4 billion in dividends, and the stock trades near 13 times expected 2027 earnings versus about 19 times for the S&P 500. The author sees value for income investors willing to wait for the turnaround, though the Oct. 27 report and thin dividend coverage remain risks.
- UPS to Report Q3 Earnings: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
United Parcel Service (UPS) is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2026 results on October 27 before the market opens. The Zacks consensus estimates EPS of $1.63, down 6.3% year over year, and revenue of $22.23 billion, up 3.8%. UPS has beaten earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 12.4%. The article attributes pressure to the Middle East conflict pushing up oil prices and fuel costs, and to UPS scaling back its Amazon business, which is expected to lower volumes about 5.4% year over year. Under its "Better, Not Bigger" strategy, UPS is focusing on profitability, cost cuts and automation.
- Prediction: UPS Will Miss Estimates (but the Stock Could Still Be a Good Value)
The article argues UPS (NYSE: UPS) could miss earnings estimates in the third quarter and for 2026, even though its stock yields around 7%. It cites three risks: elevated fuel costs that could pressure margins, possible competition from Amazon that could hurt volume or pricing, and weak global e-commerce trends. In the first half of 2026, UPS raised fuel surcharges by a combined $1.173 billion, versus a $744 million increase in fuel and third-party fuel costs, a net difference of $429 million. E-commerce demand fell 7% year over year in May 2026, its sixth straight monthly decline. With Wall Street expecting 2026 EPS of $7.20 against a dividend per share of $6.56, the author suggests the dividend could come under threat and that waiting for the earnings report may make sense before considering a purchase.
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