The author argues that eVTOL stocks may stay stuck in a holding pattern for a long time, citing three main challenges. Aviation-grade batteries cost about 10 times more than electric car batteries as of April 2025, battery and energy make up an estimated 25% to 30% of manufacturing costs, and aircraft prices range from $410,000 to $4 million. FAA certification is still incomplete: Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation had reached Phase 4 of the seven-phase process as of May, U.S. certification might not come until mid-2027 at the earliest, and Joby is burning over $200 million per quarter as of September 2026. The author also questions airspace, air traffic control, vertiport infrastructure and the business model, warning that many companies may run out of cash before commercialization.
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