The S&P 500 is up about 12% this year but has slipped nearly 2% from its recent record, and the Nasdaq Composite is more than 4% below its high as sticky inflation and rising bond yields weigh on tech stocks. The Shiller CAPE ratio has stayed above 40 for months, a level reached only once before in 155 years, during the dot-com bubble, versus a long-term average of about 17.4. The stock market's value relative to GDP, around 244%, also exceeds the 190% level reached in the dot-com era, and Warren Buffett warned that a ratio approaching 200% means “you are playing with fire.” The author argues today's leading companies have real earnings unlike many dot-com stocks, and that CAPE signals lower returns over the next decade rather than a guaranteed crash. A $1,000 investment in an S&P 500 ETF made at the March 24, 2000 peak would have grown to more than $5,000 before dividends.
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NVDA
• NeutralNvidia
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Market cap | $5.2T |
| Close on 10/20/2026 | 216.47 |
| Change that session | -0.29% |
SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/20/2026 | 769.05 |
| Change that session | +0.34% |
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