Vistra (VST) shares fell 28.4% over the past year, while the S&P 500 returned 17.4%, even as the power producer keeps signing long-term deals to supply electricity from existing plants to large users such as Meta and a Texas data center project. Management says these customers will pay a premium over market prices because existing capacity still costs less than new construction, and it expects the Meta premium plus the pending Cogentrix purchase to add roughly $700 million of adjusted EBITDA. That gain is excluded from the 2027 guidance of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion; added to the midpoint it would lift 2027 by about 9%, though part of that comes from the Cogentrix acquisition rather than the contracts. Meanwhile, forward power prices in ERCOT, the Texas market, are meaningfully lower than the October 31, 2025 prices its 2027 range was built on, so management expects 2027 to trend toward the lower end of the range. An updated 2027 adjusted EBITDA range is due with the third-quarter report, expected around November 6, 2026.
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