JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta says obtaining Chinese regulatory approval could be a bigger hurdle than Tesla shareholder support for a possible Tesla–SpaceX merger, though no deal has been announced. China accounts for about 20% of Tesla's revenue and a larger share of its EBIT and free cash flow, and Gupta estimates Chinese operations at about 10% of JPMorgan's $1.7 trillion sum-of-the-parts valuation. The bank's scenario assumes a 30%–35% premium over Tesla's market cap and a merger of equals in which Musk keeps over 50% voting control, with his voting stake rising to about 20% after he exercised his 2018 award in June 2026. Gupta cites shared engineering, AI, and commercial ties, including Tesla's $2 billion investment in xAI, and values SpaceX at about $2 trillion, which could support an all-stock deal. He also notes that Starlink is not authorised to operate in China and that SpaceX's US defence contracts could complicate regulatory review.
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TSLAmergers and acquisitionsJPMorganChinaElon Musk
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Related tickers and likely impact
TSLA
• NeutralTesla, Inc.
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary |
| Industry | Automobile Manufacturers |
| Market cap | $1.4T |
| Close on 10/21/2026 | 386.47 |
| Change that session | +3.41% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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