Grocery prices have risen sharply since the pandemic, jumping 11.4% in 2022 alone and continuing to climb more slowly since 2023, though some individual items have fallen. A typical pound of ground beef cost $6.79 last month, up 85% from a decade earlier, as droughts shrank U.S. cattle herds to their smallest in 75 years. Egg prices swing with avian flu, hitting a record $6.23 a dozen in March of last year before dropping to $2.27 last month. Coffee, more than 99% of which the U.S. imports, was still 44% pricier than two years earlier even after tariffs on it were scrapped, with weather and climate change disrupting harvests.
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Global food inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Nino-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022, and the World Bank found food prices rose faster than headline inflation in 22% of 150 countries in the September quarter, up from 14% previously. Wheat prices are up more than 30% in 2026, rice prices in key Asian exporters have risen 10% to 13%, and Indonesia's rice prices have hit record highs. The poorest consumers in low- and middle-income countries are hit hardest, raising the risk of social unrest and export bans, and freight rates on some key routes have risen about 50%.
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