Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 on Oct. 26 and could go public as soon as the week of Nov. 16, leaving investors under a month to decide. Looking at history, Meta's stock fell 47% below its $38 May 2012 IPO price before soaring 1,572% through May 2026, while five of the 10 largest IPOs by capital raised had negative returns in their first three months. The top performers among those 10 were financial, technology, or consumer companies, while the four weakest were in energy, telecom, and utilities. The article notes that first-day gains are often reported using the IPO price set for institutions, which differs from what retail investors paid. Rather than focusing on day-one returns, the author suggests asking whether Anthropic could be a high-conviction holding that can withstand a slump.
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