Polymarket traders put the chance at 89% (as of 7 p.m. ET) that Democrats will sweep both the House and Senate, while Republicans hold 218 of 435 House seats and 53 of 100 Senate seats. Trump told Fox News “I guess I'll become Mr. Veto” if a Democratic-led Congress takes shape. The article notes that a divided Congress could keep major tax and spending legislation off the table, but could also create friction over the debt ceiling (forecast to be reached in the first half of 2027), raise shutdown risk and spark disputes over AI regulation. Citing Retirement Researcher, it says the S&P 500's average annual return is 7.33% under a Republican president facing a divided Congress, versus 14.01% to 16.63% in other scenarios, while the index has been higher six and 12 months after every midterm election over the last 75 years.
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midterm electionsDonald TrumpS&P 500Democratic Party
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Related tickers and likely impact
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 11/03/2026 | 754.41 |
| Change that session | +0.31% |
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 11/03/2026 | 685.34 |
| Change that session | +0.62% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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