According to prediction market Kalshi, as of 8:50 p.m. ET the odds of Democrats retaking the House had risen above 99%, meaning President Trump would likely face a divided Congress from January 2027. A Retirement Researcher review of S&P 500 returns from 1926 through 2023 found an average annual return of 7.33% during 34 years of divided Congress with a Republican president, compared with 16.63% during 15 years of divided Congress with a Democratic president. The article notes that gridlock would make major tax and spending legislation hard to pass, while debt-ceiling talks would be harder. UBS puts the chance of a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 50%. Still, Carson Group's Ryan Detrick notes that the six months after midterm elections have historically been strong, and the S&P 500 hasn't been down in the six- or 12-month period after a midterm over the last 75 years.
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midterm electionsDemocratic PartyS&P 500Donald Trumptaxes
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Related tickers and likely impact
QQQ
• NeutralInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 11/03/2026 | 685.28 |
| Change that session | +0.62% |
SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 11/03/2026 | 754.35 |
| Change that session | +0.30% |
NVDA
• NeutralNvidia
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Market cap | $5.1T |
| Close on 11/03/2026 | 206.69 |
| Change that session | +2.29% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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