Marvell (MRVL) shares fell 14.05% over the past week to $196.40 after reports of a possible takeover of Lumentum (LITE), and Marvell has issued no official statement. Lumentum's market cap is about $76.2 billion versus about $172.2 billion for Marvell, and the article says a deal would be a heavy lift, possibly requiring new stock or debt on top of $4.96 billion in existing debt. Marvell raised its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to roughly $12 billion and fiscal 2028 to about $18 billion, and the stock trades at 26x forward earnings. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Strong Buy, 32 Buy, 6 Hold and none Sell, with a consensus target of $340.56 implying 73.4% upside. Risks cited include reliance on a few hyperscalers and a beta of 2.26, and the fiscal third-quarter report, measured against guidance of $3.15 billion revenue and $1.10 non-GAAP EPS, is the next checkpoint.
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Marvell shares fell 13% to $220 in morning trading, while Lumentum rose 6% to $965 after Bloomberg reported that Marvell is in advanced talks to acquire it, with a deal possibly announced as soon as next week and no final agreement yet. Lumentum has a market value of $82.8 billion against Marvell's $220.7 billion, and the two stocks were already up 159% and 162% year to date. Coherent was up 0.2% at $240, while Applied Optoelectronics fell 3% to $80, with investors seen as weighing the price and dilution risk of a large acquisition. Marvell already carries $4.963 billion of long-term debt, and a stock-heavy deal could add to dilution concerns. The article notes the terms could still change, so the outcome of the talks remains uncertain.
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