Moderna (MRNA) shares have risen more than 600% so far this year and over 800% in the past 12 months, on hopes for intismeran, a personalized cancer vaccine developed with Merck. In trials, the vaccine combined with Merck's Keytruda cut the risk of death and melanoma recurrence by 42% compared with Keytruda alone. Its custom manufacturing process can span six weeks, which may keep costs high and limit economies of scale. One analyst projects peak annual sales above $5 billion for melanoma alone. Citing a valuation of around $90 billion, the author says too much future growth is already priced in and places the stock on a watch list.
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