Nebius (NBIS) shares have fallen about 47% from their June 18 record close of $286.69 and are near $152 after rising about 7% on Nov. 3. The company targets annualized run-rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026, versus $3.0 billion at the end of June. To fund expected 2026 capital expenditures of $20 billion to $25 billion, it has relied on outside money, including sales of 12.7 million shares, about $5.75 billion in convertible notes, and a $3.5 billion Citigroup facility that lasts 364 days. Three customers accounted for 59% of second-quarter revenue, and the author chooses to wait for the Q3 report on Nov. 12, saying a September run-rate of around $4.6 billion would keep Nebius on track for the low end of its target.
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