Social Security retirement benefits could face an automatic cut of about 22% in the fourth quarter of 2032, when the trust fund is projected to run out, according to the trustees; the Congressional Budget Office forecasts an earlier depletion in mid-2032 with a 26% cut. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates a 24% cut would reduce average monthly benefits by about $500 nationwide, with larger reductions in 29 states. Delay could push up Treasury yields and borrowing costs and weigh on economic growth; the National Institute on Retirement Security says Social Security generated $2.6 trillion in economic output and supported more than 12 million jobs in 2023. Economist Jessica Riedl calls a payroll tax increase in the next couple of years 'extraordinarily unlikely,' noting Washington tends to wait until the last minute.
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| Market | US stocks |
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| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/30/2026 | 755.71 |
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