Year to date, the S&P 500 is up 10% and the Nasdaq Composite 9%, driven by strong earnings growth fueled by AI, with FactSet estimating S&P 500 earnings growth of nearly 33% this year. The article notes that midterm elections, held on Tuesday, typically bring volatility due to policy uncertainty, with the S&P 500 averaging an 18% peak-to-trough decline in midterm years, yet the six months after midterms have historically been the strongest of the four-year presidential cycle. Based on that history, the S&P 500 could rise about 13% to about 8,610 and the Nasdaq Composite 18% to about 30,200. However, the S&P 500's CAPE ratio of 40.7 is higher than at any point headed into past midterm elections, and such high valuations have historically been followed by weak performance. FactSet's median 12-month target price of 9,328 implies 22% upside from 7,620.
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SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 11/02/2026 | 752.10 |
| Change that session | -0.48% |
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