Since the 2022 bear market bottomed, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have gained 82%, 115% and 154%, helped by AI infrastructure build-out, record IPOs and buybacks. The article highlights the Shiller P/E (CAPE) ratio, at 40.66 on Oct. 26, 133% above its long-term average of 17.44, and above 40 only three times in history, all since 1999. Previous episodes above 40 were followed by sharp falls, including the dot-com crash that cut the S&P 500 by 49% and the Nasdaq Composite by 78% by late 2002. The author notes the ratio has stayed above 40 for six months but argues bear markets are often short-lived, citing a Bespoke Investment Group analysis of S&P 500 bull and bear markets since 1929; the article is cut off before giving those results.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Keywords
valuationS&P 500NasdaqDow Jonesbear market
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
QQQ
• NeutralInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/30/2026 | 690.49 |
| Change that session | -3.47% |
SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/30/2026 | 755.71 |
| Change that session | -1.77% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- This Stock Market Metric Warns History May Be Repeating Itself. Here's How the Smartest Investors Are Preparing.
After years of record gains, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have each fallen about 2% from their all-time highs, while the Nasdaq Composite has dropped close to 6%. A weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors found nearly 46% of investors expect stock prices to fall over the next 6 months, 37% are bullish, and 17% expect little change. The article notes the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio surpassed 40 in May this year and has stayed there since, only the second time in history it has remained this high for months; it first passed 40 in early 1999, and the bear market began in March 2000. The article stresses the metric cannot predict when the next bear market will start or how severe it will be, but it shows stocks are richly valued. It argues that many successful investors have held quality stocks for the long term, citing Microsoft's 60% drop during the dot-com bear market.
- This bull market will end sometime . Then comes the recovery | Opinion
In this opinion piece, David Moon of Moon Capital Management argues that the current bull market, which has roughly doubled the S&P 500 since its October 2022 low, will eventually end, possibly abruptly. He recalls the 1987 crash, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 22.6% in a single day, yet the economy did not collapse and the Dow finished that year higher than it started. Newspapers at the time compared 1987 with 1929, but the predicted depression did not come. Moon concludes that the more pessimistic the predictions, the more profitable the eventual recovery may be.
- We're Witnessing the Stock Market Do Something for Only the 3rd Time in the Last 100 Years, and History Is Crystal Clear on What's Next for Stocks
As of Oct. 19, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were up 8.1%, 12.4% and 13.7% year to date, driven by AI infrastructure spending, better-than-expected earnings, record IPOs and record S&P 500 buybacks. The S&P 500's Shiller P/E (CAPE) was nearing 41 and has stayed above 40 for five months, peaking at 42.84 on June 1. The CAPE has exceeded 40 only three times in the last 100 years, and the previous two occurrences were followed by sharp declines: a peak of 44.19 in December 1999 preceded the dot-com crash, which cut the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite by 49% and 78% through October 2002. When the CAPE topped 40 in January 2022, the 2022 bear market went on to wipe out a fifth, a quarter and a third of the Dow's, S&P 500's and Nasdaq's values. The article notes the tool cannot pinpoint when stocks will fall or what will trigger it, though corrections and bear markets are a normal part of the investing cycle.
- History Says a Stock Market Downturn Is Coming, and Investors Should Do This When It Happens
Year to date, the S&P 500 is up 13% and the Nasdaq Composite up 15%, despite inflation, elevated bond yields and midterm elections, and the article says the next downturn is only a matter of time. Since 2010, the S&P 500 has had 10 corrections, 2 of which became bear markets, with average 12-month returns of 18% after its first close in correction territory and 38% after entering a bear market. The Nasdaq Composite has had 14 corrections, 4 of which became bear markets, with average one-year returns of 23% after a correction and 39% after a bear market. Citing history, the article argues that buying the dip is the smartest move investors can make when markets fall, noting that losses have always been recovered and rebounds have typically been swift. The S&P 500 covers 500 large US companies representing 80% of US equities by market value, while the Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward technology.
- A Stock Market Correction Could Be Coming. Here's Why I'm Still Investing.
The S&P 500's Shiller cyclically adjusted P/E is now about 41, its highest level since August 2000, when it stood at 41.89 and the market had already entered the early stage of a bear market that lasted until November 2022. The author says it is impossible to know whether a correction is imminent and that the market could keep rising. The author suggests keeping portfolios diversified, rebalancing if they are top-heavy in tech, scaling back positions in stocks valued well above their typical ranges, and adding value, dividend, and high-quality stocks. The author also views discounted tech, AI, or growth stocks as worth examining, provided investors research why they are cheap and whether their fundamentals remain strong.
- These 3 Big Risks Could Cause the Next Bear Market. I'm Investing Anyway.
The article argues that stocks always carry risk, pointing to the 2022 bear market when the S&P 500 fell about 18% and the Nasdaq-100 about 32% on a total return basis. The author outlines three risks: heavy reliance on AI, as Goldman Sachs research from September found the largest AI hyperscalers had spent about $800 billion in capital expenditures since the start of the year; rising rates, as the Fed hiked in September and the 10-year Treasury yield has risen about 0.92% over the past year; and high valuations, with the CAPE ratio at levels not seen since 2000, just before the dot-com crash. Even so, the author says they will keep investing and buying more stocks through low-cost index funds, noting the S&P 500 has averaged 9.98% annual returns since 1928 and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) about 13.8% a year over the past five years, including 2022.
Related markets
Latest news
- Want to invest your 401(k) in gold? Here are your options
The article explains how to invest in gold through a 401(k), including gold ETFs and funds. It also covers how a rollover from a 401(k) to a gold IRA works.
- A Stock Market Smackdown Week: Elections, Jobs Data, Iran And Earnings
The week ahead is expected to be volatile for investors, with the midterm elections, October jobs data and possible attacks on Iran all in play.
- America is doing better than you think. Your algorithm is just hiding it.
The bottom half of Americans has more than doubled its net worth since 2019, though this is hard to notice while scrolling social media.
- MP Materials Has Collapsed 60% From Its Highs. Here's Why I'm Not Buying (Yet).
MP Materials (MP), the rare-earth miner that operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, has fallen about 60% from its highs, from roughly 100 USD a share last October to about 40 USD. Analysts' average price target is about 71 USD. Under a deal with the Department of Defense last July, the Pentagon set a 10-year price floor of 110 USD per kilogram for NdPr, which the author says makes MP much less vulnerable than other miners. However, the government's price-protection income of 17.6 million USD last quarter accounted for more than 60% of adjusted EBITDA, leading the author to question whether to value the stock on its own earnings or pay a premium for government-dependent profits. The author wants to see the business generate substantial profits on its own and reduce reliance on the Pentagon's payments before feeling more confident, noting the price floor expires at the end of 2035.
- Beyond Nvidia And Hyperscalers: Beth Kindig Sees A $1 Trillion AI Infrastructure Opportunity For These Stocks
IO Fund's Beth Kindig says AI infrastructure demand is increasingly coming from enterprises, neoclouds and sovereign AI customers rather than just the largest cloud providers, which could benefit makers of servers, CPUs, networking, storage and cooling. Nvidia's ACIE business reached $40.3 billion in fiscal Q2, up 138.5% year over year versus 101.2% for hyperscalers, and Kindig estimates it could overtake hyperscaler revenue within two to six quarters. Citing Dell's forecast of 200 gigawatts of AI data center growth through 2030, worth over $1 trillion, she sees Dell and Super Micro Computer as direct beneficiaries. She also highlights rack-scale CPU platforms from Nvidia, AMD and Arm, and liquid cooling, which TrendForce expects to reach 59% penetration in 2027 from 6% in 2023.
- Why Have Profits at Some Banks Fallen Sharply?
Profits at several banks fell sharply after rate-cut programs for individuals and businesses, along with higher risk provisions. SACOMBANK's 9-month pre-tax profit reached nearly 5,900 billion dong, down 46% year over year, though service income rose about 3.5 times and operating expenses fell 19.3%. Eximbank's pre-tax profit was 864 billion dong, down 58%, as it raised credit risk provisions to 997 billion dong and focused on asset quality. Other banks also saw steep declines, including Saigonbank down over 78%, BVBank down 19%, Kienlongbank down nearly 13% and PGBank down 10.5%. The article cites a sudden rise in provision costs, narrowing net interest margins (NIM) and lower non-interest income as the main reasons.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.