US stock indices opened mixed on Tuesday as midterm polls began, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 182.38 points, the S&P 500 up 0.11% and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.38%. UBS said the midterms should not be seen as a binary market event, with AI investment, economic growth, corporate earnings, inflation and interest rates expected to remain the main drivers. Carson Group's Ryan Detrick said markets could recover once election uncertainty passes, while JPMorgan expected a Democratic sweep of Congress to push the S&P 500 down about 0.5% on Wednesday and Wells Fargo's Sameer Samana said a Republican hold on both chambers could trigger a rally. JPMorgan Asset Management found the S&P 500 averaged 9.2% returns in midterm years since 1937 versus 13.3% in non-midterm years, and stressed that economic conditions matter more than political control. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 2 basis points to 4.92% and oil prices climbed after reports of renewed U.S. military action against Iran.
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