News about Kevin Warsh

Gold rose above $4,200 an ounce in US futures on Monday as traders scaled back expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike after comments from Chair Kevin Warsh. Spot gold gained 0.4% to $4,180.29, while US gold futures rose 0.5% to $4,200.92. The implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the next meeting fell below 20%, after US inflation data released the previous week exceeded expectations. Silver, platinum and palladium also gained, while the US Dollar Index was roughly flat at 101.80. ANZ maintains a positive long-term view and expects gold to rise above $5,000 an ounce during 2027, though elevated bond yields and a strong dollar could pressure prices in the near term.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh repeatedly said the Fed had 'removed a dose of accommodation' at its September meeting, a signal that inflation remains a concern. September producer prices rose 6.3% on a headline basis and 5% on a core basis, above expectations, though headline inflation had eased from its 4.2% peak in May. The Fed voted 12-0 on Sept. 16 to raise rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and the author argues further hikes could come in December and through 2027. Because much AI infrastructure spending is partly debt-financed, the author warns that rising borrowing costs could slow AI growth, noting the market is the second-priciest in history.

Gold prices in Dubai edged higher on Monday as traders pared bets on a US Federal Reserve rate hike later this month, after remarks from Chair Kevin Warsh were read as favoring a pause. 24-karat gold traded at Dh504.25 per gram and 22-karat at Dh467, while 14-karat stayed below Dh300. Spot gold rose 0.42 per cent to $4,177.78 an ounce and silver gained 1.31 per cent to $57.56, while the chance of a quarter-point Fed hike fell below 20%. Gold has held above $4,000 an ounce since August and has seen gold-backed ETF inflows for 13 straight weeks, though it is still down roughly 20% since the US-Iran conflict began in late February.

Gold rose on Monday as investors scaled back expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October following remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Spot gold climbed 0.2% to $4,173.59 per ounce, silver, platinum and palladium also gained, and traders cut the probability of a 25-basis-point hike below 20%. Gold has held above $4,000 since August but remains about 20% below its level before the U.S.-Iran conflict began in February. ANZ sees fiscal concerns, Chinese demand and central bank diversification supporting gold over the longer term, while elevated yields and dollar strength limit near-term upside, and it forecasts bullion could exceed $5,000 per ounce in 2027.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,173.59 an ounce on Monday after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks were read as supporting a hold at next week’s meeting. Traders cut the implied chance of a rate hike to below 20%, reversing the revived hike bets that followed a stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation reading. Gold has stayed above $4,000 an ounce since August, but it is down about a fifth since the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted in late February. ANZ sees gold’s upside capped in the short term, though it expects prices to top $5,000 an ounce in 2027, supported by Chinese investors and central-bank diversification.

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have gained 19%, 30% and 39% respectively since Trump's second term began, through October 13. The article argues the bull market faces two threats, the first being 'Trumpflation', as annualized inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2% in May, more than double the Fed's 2% target. A New York Fed analysis estimates tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to goods price inflation by February 2026. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz after operations began on Feb. 28 has pushed fuel prices sharply higher and is spreading into core inflation, raising the chance the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh must hike rates aggressively. The article also says the AI infrastructure build-out, the market's top driver, has its own downsides.

Leaders at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok said the AI boom is a major driver of global growth but could pose economic risks if investment falters. The IMF said AI spending helped cushion the shock from higher energy prices caused by the Middle East war, and that global trade rose 8.3% over 2023–2025, versus about 4.6% without AI-related products. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh called AI the 'most consequential change' of his lifetime but warned the path ahead would be 'bumpy'. An IMF report projected that a decline in AI investment could reduce global GDP by 0.4% by 2028, while Moody's Analytics warned a prolonged conflict could 'puncture' the boom. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva added that without safeguards, 'the risks may exceed the opportunities'.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the central bank's next interest-rate move, saying he would not “prejudge” policy decisions. Speaking at the 2026 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings, he described artificial intelligence as a “positive supply shock” for the economy over the medium term, though it is hitting demand first. He said the US is seeing a massive investment surge, though the trend is not equally visible across countries, and challenged the view that prolonged economic weakness is inevitable. Major brokerages expect a possible rate hike in December, while markets broadly expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its October 27-28 meeting.