A $10,000 stake bought at The Trade Desk's first-day close in 2016 was worth about $40,600 by Oct. 16, but the stock is still 91% below its December 2024 peak of $139.51. Revenue grew from about $203 million in 2016 to $2.4 billion in 2024 with a profit every year, but shares fell 33% in February 2025 after missing a forecast and 39% in August 2025 after a CFO exit and slowing guidance. Revenue growth slowed to 3% in Q2 2026, and management guided Q3 2026 revenue to at least $650 million, about 12% below a year earlier. Earnings per share rose 38% to $0.84 over the past four quarters, so the P/E fell from almost 230 to below 15, and the stock moved from the S&P 500 to the S&P SmallCap 600 on Sept. 21. The author notes an S&P 500 fund (SPY) returned nearly the same over the period, but with a much smoother path.
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