According to CFRA strategist Sam Stovall, history suggests it is hard to derail a bull market after four consecutive years of gains, with the average fifth-year gain near 21%. S&P 500 earnings rebounded after a 12.7% drop in 2022, and FactSet expects third-quarter 2026 earnings growth of 29% year over year. The index trades at a forward P/E of 19.8x, a 0.4% discount to its 10-year average, while the 5.24% 10-year Treasury yield is a headwind. Still, Stovall does not expect a fifth straight year of double-digit gains, and he projects full-year 2026 S&P 500 EPS growth of 31.7%, followed by 16.8% in 2027 and 16.9% in 2028.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on aol.com ↗
Keywords
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related news
- The 10-Year Treasury Is Above 5% for the First Time in Almost 20 Years. History Says This Is How the S&P 500 Index Will Perform Over the Next 12 Months.
The 10-year US Treasury yield reached 5.06% on the morning of October 15, after crossing 5% in late September for the first time since it last closed above that level on July 19, 2007. The article says this rate anchors pricing, mortgages, corporate borrowing costs and valuations across the economy. It compares today with 2007, when the S&P 500 fell 19% over the following 12 months and 11% over the next five years, noting a similar backdrop of rising yields, central bank rate hikes and an index near record highs. However, it highlights key differences: banks now face stricter rules after Dodd-Frank, the yield curve is normal rather than inverted as in 2007, and the market is dominated by highly profitable tech giants. It advises long-term investors to focus on high-quality companies and not rely too heavily on macro data.
- Stocks are heading for a high - stakes showdown , as strong earnings collide with rising borrowing costs
Wall Street faces a tug-of-war as booming earnings for technology and energy firms collide with a relentless rise in bond yields, which have reached their highest levels in decades. Analysts expect earnings to keep soaring on AI data center build-outs, while oil prices, pushed into triple-digit territory by the war with Iran, add pressure on consumers. The market has split into AI and non-AI stocks, and AI stocks sold off last week as Treasury yields fell and investors questioned the AI-driven growth story. Valuations have slumped: the S&P 500 trades at 19 times expected earnings, below its five-year and 10-year averages, according to FactSet. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer said earnings growth and the rising cost of capital are in a race to determine stock prices.
- Apple Has Outperformed the S&P 500, but is AAPL's 35x Valuation Getting Ahead of its Growth?
Apple's one-year total return is well above the S&P 500's nearly 14%, but Yahoo Finance lists its forward P/E at 35.21, up from 25.71 in June 2025. June-quarter revenue rose 16% to $109.4 billion and diluted EPS climbed 29% to $2.02, driven by iPhone revenue that grew from $44.6 billion to $54.3 billion, while Services reached $30.7 billion versus $27.4 billion a year earlier. Operating cash flow for the first nine months of fiscal 2026 was $117 billion, and Apple repurchased $62.1 billion of shares. However, the third-quarter gross margin of 50.1% included about two percentage points from tariff refunds, which added $0.11 to diluted EPS, so part of the 29% EPS gain does not come from recurring operations.
- What Up w / Stocks , Cryptos , Gold & Silver ? October 19th , 2026 | Vero Patriot
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their worst weekly performance since June, and many AI-linked companies entered bear market territory with declines of 20% or more. Hotter-than-expected inflation, with CPI at 3.7% and PPI at 6.2%, led investors to price in at least an 89% chance of another Fed rate hike this year, though most still expect no change at this month's meeting. WTI crude closed above $101 per barrel, while the 9% of companies that had reported third-quarter earnings averaged 29% growth. Year to date, the Dow is up 7%, the S&P 500 12% and the Nasdaq 13%, while Bitcoin is down 8%, Ether 19%, gold 3% and silver 19%. Based on earnings, the article says the S&P 500's P/E of 26.12 versus a historical average of 16.24 implies a maximum downside of 38%.
- Tesla Stock vs. the S&P 500: Which Investment Wins Through 2030?
The article argues Tesla trades at roughly 203 times this year's expected earnings and 13 times expected sales, a valuation that looks very expensive given gross margin pressure and a slower-than-expected robotaxi rollout. The flying Roadster, slated for production in 2028, is unlikely to make a meaningful sales or earnings contribution before 2030. The author thinks a Tesla-SpaceX merger by the end of the decade, likely an all-stock deal, is more likely than not and would be a key factor in how Tesla stock performs against the S&P 500 through 2030.
- If I Could Only Buy 1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Before the Market Crashes, It Would Be This One
The author warns that the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio, above 41, is extremely elevated, and says investors should favor companies with durable advantages before a downturn. Alphabet is highlighted for products embedded in everyday life, a diversified mix of advertising and Google Cloud, and vertical integration including custom TPU chips. In the second quarter, Alphabet reported revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24%, Google Cloud revenue up 82% to $24.8 billion, operating cash flow of $39.1 billion and $242.5 billion in cash and marketable securities. The article notes Alphabet fell 55% in 2008, about 31% in the COVID-19 crash and about 39% in 2022, and the author suggests buying gradually during dips and holding long term.
Related markets
Latest news
- Winning over Vingroup and Sun Group with concrete and special materials: Vietnamese company's profit up 136%, chairman speaks out
Song Da Cao Cuong (SCL) reported Q3/2026 profit of VND 38 billion, up 136%, on net revenue of over VND 263 billion (up nearly 98%), while gross profit margin rose from about 36% to 41%. For the first nine months, revenue reached nearly VND 666 billion (up 81%) and after-tax profit nearly VND 94 billion, already exceeding more than 110% of its full-year profit target. Chairman Kieu Van Mat attributed the results to technology upgrades, production line optimization and capacity expansion, with several new plants expected to start operations by November 2026. The company said it spent more than two years testing its products before Vingroup accepted them; Vingroup's share of its business has fallen to about 25% as customers expanded to around 10 major groups and exports began to Laos, Cambodia and the Philippines. Over the past two years, the company has invested about VND 1,000 billion in factories and technology.
- Coteccons Chairman Bolat Duisenov reveals new direction: expanding home construction for individual customers
At the annual general meeting on October 20, Coteccons (HoSE: CTD) set fiscal 2027 targets of VND 42,000 billion in revenue and VND 1,050 billion in after-tax profit, and said it is considering expanding into residential construction for individual customers (B2C). In fiscal 2026, net revenue reached VND 34,340 billion (up 38%, 115% of plan) and after-tax profit VND 788 billion (up 73%); new contract wins totaled VND 60,307 billion and backlog was about VND 70,000 billion. In the first quarter of the new fiscal year, the company booked revenue of VND 11,270 billion and profit of VND 306 billion, but new contract value of VND 14,519 billion was lower than a year earlier; the company said it is tightening criteria for selecting clients and projects. Coteccons is also working with Microsoft, is expected to become a strategic partner of Workday, and targets raising its ROE from 10% to 15-18% by 2030.
- UPS Yields 6.7% After Firing Amazon. Here's Whether the Dividend Survives 2027.
UPS shares yield 6.7% as of October 16. The company has moved away from high-volume, low-margin Amazon deliveries and froze its dividend earlier this year, ending a 16-year streak of increases. The article says the payout will likely remain frozen through 2026 and 2027, citing competition from 10- and 30-year Treasury yields above 5% and other industrial dividend payers, but calls the dividend's safety questionable: UPS generated $5.47 billion in free cash flow in 2025, with $5.4 billion going to dividends, and free cash flow is projected to fall to $5.05 billion in 2026 and $5.01 billion in 2027, with the dividend absorbing about 98% of 2026 free cash flow. Rising competition and high fuel prices add pressure, and the article suggests investors may find more safety in the industrial sector.
- Asian shares mostly decline after AI stocks lead a rebound on Wall Street
Asian shares mostly fell in cautious trading on Tuesday after AI-related stocks rebounded on Wall Street, while other sectors stayed shaky and oil prices stayed high. Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped 0.6% to 64,512.35 in early trading, South Korea's Kospi dropped 2.8%, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.8%. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq gained 1.1%, helped by Nvidia's 1.4% gain, while most stocks outside AI and tech fell and the Dow slipped 0.1%. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.14%, and U.S. crude rose to $103.50 a barrel and Brent to $109.47, as uncertainty about when the energy industry will return to normal after the war with Iran means oil is unlikely to ease soon.
- Asian shares mostly decline after AI stocks lead a rebound on Wall Street
Asian shares mostly fell in cautious trading Tuesday after AI-related stocks rebounded on Wall Street, while other sectors stayed shaky and oil prices remained high. Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped 0.6% to 64,512.35, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.8% to 8,772.10, and South Korea's Kospi dropped 2.8% to 5,605.31. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq rallied 1.1%, helped by Nvidia, while the Dow fell 0.1%. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.14%, and U.S. crude rose 0.15% to $103.50 a barrel as uncertainty over the war with Iran kept oil prices elevated.
- What Could X-Energy (XE) Gain From Its 960MW Indiana Nuclear Project?
X-Energy (NasdaqGS:XE), American Electric Power and Amazon agreed to assess a 960 MW advanced nuclear project in Indiana using Xe-100 reactors, on a former coal plant site. Under the joint development agreement, Amazon would provide development funding and commit to a long-term power purchase. The article says the deal offers commercial validation for X-Energy's reactor platform rather than immediate financial relief, as the company, with a $4.3b market cap, reported $150.28 million in revenue, a $448.87 million loss, and a 20.2x price-to-sales ratio. The next key milestone is whether the study reaches a final investment decision for the Sullivan County site.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.