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The article argues that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and ASML are both near-monopolies, but Taiwan Semiconductor is the safer investment. ASML is the only maker of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, while Taiwan Semiconductor accounted for about 72.5% of chip fabrication revenue in Q2, a scale no rival matches. The author warns that ASML's business depends on chipmakers expanding capacity for the AI build-out, which may slow once that wave ends. ASML also trades at a sizable premium to Taiwan Semiconductor on both 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates.
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TSMC CEO C.C. Wei confirmed on the October 15, 2026 third-quarter earnings call that the company is in talks with SpaceX about the Terafab chip plant, but said a Texas facility must be run by TSMC. Elon Musk earlier said SpaceX would build and run the fab, with TSMC at most subleasing part of it. TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $46.72B at a 66.4% gross margin and said overseas fabs will reduce gross margin by about 2% in 2026. TSM shares fell 3.05% to $416.90 in morning trading.
- The Ultimate AI Investing Basket: 4 Stocks Primed to Skyrocket in 2027
The article argues that AI stocks are selling off after a hot inflation report that could prompt an interest rate increase, but the AI infrastructure build-out is still ongoing. The author highlights four stocks: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), Micron Technology (MU), Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO). Nvidia has told investors it expects 70% revenue growth next year, while Broadcom expects its AI semiconductor revenue to rise to $115 billion next year from about $65 billion this year. Micron trades at about 5 times this fiscal year's earnings, and its management expects market conditions to worsen in 2027 and 2028 even as new capacity comes online in mid-2027. The article also notes that TSMC makes chips for nearly all major tech firms and recently reported a strong third quarter.
- Intel hits construction milestone at Ohio chip fab that’s at least 5 years behind schedule
Intel has installed the first major structural truss at its chip fabrication plant in New Albany, Ohio, a project running at least 5 years behind schedule. The factory was originally expected to start delivering chips in 2025, but Intel now aims to finish construction in 2030, with a second Ohio fab targeted for 2031. Reports suggest SK Hynix could lease foundry space at the site to make memory chips, though neither company has confirmed. In Arizona, Intel is producing its 18A chips in high volume but has yet to land a major external customer, and its next Arizona fab is expected to begin operations by the end of 2028. Analysts say strong AI chip demand and TSMC's limited capacity could give Intel a window to become a second source for customers.
- Prediction: TSMC Stock Is Going to $1,200 by 2030
The article predicts TSMC stock could reach $1,200 by 2030, nearly threefold within just over four years, after the company's third-quarter results beat expectations. Q3 revenue rose 41% year over year to $46.7 billion, net profit margin reached 51.1%, and EPS climbed 57% to $4.60. TSMC expects Q4 revenue of $53.3 billion, a 58% increase, supported by strong demand for advanced chips used in AI data centers, the ramp-up of its 2nm node, and reportedly planned price increases. The author estimates EPS of $29.82 in 2028 and $60.98 in 2030; at 20 times earnings, the stock could reach $1,219.
- The Moment Jensen Huang Realized Nvidia 'Won't Have to Die' Came After a Call From This CEO: 'For the Whole Time, 30 Years…'
In a vlog in Taiwan with podcaster Lex Fridman, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recalled that in the late 1990s, after repeated unanswered calls to TSMC, he sent a lengthy letter to founder Morris Chang. Chang later invited him to Taiwan, starting a relationship that Huang described as 30 years of TSMC jumping through hoops for Nvidia. Chang said Nvidia was then a billion-dollar company and would need to generate at least $50 million in annual revenue to be a major TSMC customer; within two to three years, Nvidia was among TSMC’s top five customers. Huang’s comments came a day before TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $46.72 billion, up 41.2% year over year and above the $45.62 billion analyst estimate.
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