Nearly 30 prediction-market bills have been introduced in Congress since 2025, mostly by House Democrats, aiming to bar lawmakers and staff from trading or to restrict sports contracts, yet none has passed. Polls suggest Democrats may flip the House next month, which could give these bills a better chance under Hakeem Jeffries. Through committee investigations, Democrats could also scrutinize Donald Trump Jr.’s advisory role at Kalshi and Polymarket and his firm 1789 Capital’s investment in Polymarket, amid concerns about favorable CFTC rulings. The CFTC, which faces doubts about its capacity after recent staffing cuts, disputes those concerns, while both platforms say they welcome scrutiny. A Trump Jr. spokesperson called the concerns politically motivated and said he does not interface with the federal government on behalf of companies he advises.
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- One week out, prediction markets see Democrats as favored to sweep Congress
With the 2026 U.S. midterms one week from Tuesday, Kalshi traders put a 63% chance on Democrats winning control of both the House and Senate, odds that have been relatively stable since early October. Kalshi gives just under 10% to Republicans sweeping both chambers and 29% to Democrats taking the House while Republicans keep the Senate. On Polymarket, Democrats have a 65% chance to sweep both houses. The article notes prediction markets do not use traditional polling methods and are not substitutes for polls, which broadly show Democrats favored in the House popular vote and competitive in several Senate races in red states. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has questioned those findings, saying “the polling is inaccurate.”
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- Will Midterm Elections Cause the Trump Bull Market to Crash? History Says There's Good and Bad News...
Under President Trump, average annual stock returns have been higher than under most presidents over the past 130 years, but the November 3 midterm elections could change that. As of October 24, Polymarket traders put a 66% chance on Democrats retaking both houses of Congress, while 26% expected Republicans to keep the Senate but lose the House. Retirement Researcher data shows the S&P 500 averaged 7.33% a year from 1926 to 2023 under a Republican president with a divided Congress, versus 14.01% to 16.63% in the other scenarios. A divided Congress may offer predictable fiscal policy because major legislation is less likely, but a prolonged government shutdown is a notable risk. With national debt at $40.4 trillion, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have risen regardless of which party controls Congress, though the next two years could be bumpy.
- US stance on Ukraine and Iran could reverse if President Trump's party loses midterm elections
Independent analysts say the Democrats have a strong chance to win the House and possibly the Senate in the November 3 midterm elections, ending two years of Republican control of Congress. A Democratic-led Congress could cut defense spending to force Trump to seek lawmakers' approval before continuing the Iran war he launched on February 28 without authorization, and could require officials to testify publicly. It could pass new Ukraine aid packages with the two-thirds majority needed to override a veto, after Trump largely suspended direct US aid and lifted sanctions on Russian diesel. Support for Israel has fallen among Democrats, with nearly half of House Democrats voting this summer to cut aid, which totaled $3.8 billion in the latest fiscal year, more than any other country. Democrats have also blocked Trump's proposed 67% increase in military spending to $1,500 billion in the Senate, and want to restore billions in foreign aid that the president has withheld or canceled.
- Donald Trump will be humiliated within days , but the midterm elections will be good news for share prices , says HAMISH MCRAE
Columnist Hamish McRae argues that the US midterm elections, nine days away, are likely to be good for share prices even though Democrats may win the House. The S&P 500 has risen in every 12-month period after midterms since 1950, averaging a 15% gain, with the largest rise at 43% after 1954 and the smallest at 3% after 1986, a period that included the Black Monday crash of October 19, 1987. He notes that Wall Street tends to favour a divided Congress and that S&P 500 member earnings are up 29% year on year. For the UK, London shares tend to follow New York, since Britain accounts for about 3% of global equities versus more than half for the US, and UK investors typically hold more than half of their equity holdings in US stocks.
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