Under President Trump, average annual stock returns have been higher than under most presidents over the past 130 years, but the November 3 midterm elections could change that. As of October 24, Polymarket traders put a 66% chance on Democrats retaking both houses of Congress, while 26% expected Republicans to keep the Senate but lose the House. Retirement Researcher data shows the S&P 500 averaged 7.33% a year from 1926 to 2023 under a Republican president with a divided Congress, versus 14.01% to 16.63% in the other scenarios. A divided Congress may offer predictable fiscal policy because major legislation is less likely, but a prolonged government shutdown is a notable risk. With national debt at $40.4 trillion, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have risen regardless of which party controls Congress, though the next two years could be bumpy.
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Related tickers and likely impact
SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/27/2026 | 769.66 |
| Change that session | +0.56% |
QQQ
• NeutralInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/27/2026 | 721.25 |
| Change that session | +1.27% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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