Columnist Hamish McRae argues that the US midterm elections, nine days away, are likely to be good for share prices even though Democrats may win the House. The S&P 500 has risen in every 12-month period after midterms since 1950, averaging a 15% gain, with the largest rise at 43% after 1954 and the smallest at 3% after 1986, a period that included the Black Monday crash of October 19, 1987. He notes that Wall Street tends to favour a divided Congress and that S&P 500 member earnings are up 29% year on year. For the UK, London shares tend to follow New York, since Britain accounts for about 3% of global equities versus more than half for the US, and UK investors typically hold more than half of their equity holdings in US stocks.
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midterm electionsS&P 500Democratic PartyDonald Trump
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Related tickers and likely impact
SPY
▲ Likely positiveSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/23/2026 | 759.85 |
| Change that session | -0.54% |
QQQ
▲ Likely positiveInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/23/2026 | 704.39 |
| Change that session | -0.01% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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