With the 2026 U.S. midterms one week from Tuesday, Kalshi traders put a 63% chance on Democrats winning control of both the House and Senate, odds that have been relatively stable since early October. Kalshi gives just under 10% to Republicans sweeping both chambers and 29% to Democrats taking the House while Republicans keep the Senate. On Polymarket, Democrats have a 65% chance to sweep both houses. The article notes prediction markets do not use traditional polling methods and are not substitutes for polls, which broadly show Democrats favored in the House popular vote and competitive in several Senate races in red states. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has questioned those findings, saying “the polling is inaccurate.”
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