The Citizen Debt Forecast uses prediction-market prices in place of the CBO's growth, inflation and interest-rate assumptions to produce a continuously updated 10-year debt projection. At launch, it put federal debt held by the public at 118% of GDP in 2036, just below the CBO's 120% estimate, and the live reading soon passed the official figure. A Federal Reserve Board working paper found market-implied federal funds rate forecasts about as accurate as the New York Fed's survey, and inflation forecasts modestly better, with an average release-day error of 0.06 percentage points versus 0.08 for the Bloomberg consensus. Unlike periodic surveys, markets provide full probability distributions and update within minutes of data releases. The article argues this approach could offset the negative tone and single-number estimates common in economic news, though the exchange's commercial interest warrants scrutiny.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on rstreet.org ↗
Related news
- MoSPI conducting new surveys to improve economic data : Secretary Saurabh Garg
Saurabh Garg, Secretary of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), said the ministry is conducting new surveys, including one on cooperatives, to improve economic data. He said India has recorded consistent growth of 7-8% over the past three years, with GDP up 7.8% in the first quarter of the current financial year, though he declined to comment on second-quarter figures. Garg described inflation as a concern but said government measures have kept it within manageable limits. He stressed that GDP should be complemented by other indicators, including better measurement of non-market activities such as the care economy and household work. He also noted that MoSPI has introduced double deflation to better capture value addition in manufacturing.
- Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan Says Crypto Investors Can Achieve Superior Returns With Prediction Markets. Here's Why He's Right.
Speaking at TOKEN2049 in Singapore, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan suggested crypto investors could earn superior returns by trading prediction market event contracts instead of buying crypto on the spot market. The article describes the crypto market as driven by “irrational exuberance” and a “hot potato” game, where altcoins promising 100x returns often crash, with Bitcoin and Ethereum as notable exceptions. It argues prediction markets offer more “predictable” returns, citing a hypothetical example of Bitcoin contracts accumulated when BTC was $60,000 that would be profitable with Bitcoin near $85,000, and noting such contracts can also profit in falling markets. The author says prediction market contracts shouldn’t make up an entire portfolio because that would be too risky, but could boost a long-term buy-and-hold portfolio.
- Jamie Dimon Sees 'Higher Chance' of Market Trouble Than Wall Street Does — ‘That Is Not a Prediction,’ but JPMorgan Is Preparing for the Risk
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said he still sees a greater chance of a market shock than most people do, but stressed that this is 'not a prediction' and reflects 'cautious preparation'. The bank's third-quarter revenue rose 8% year over year to $50.91 billion, missing expectations of $51.26 billion. Asked about a 6% 10-year Treasury yield and more Fed rate hikes, Dimon said such an outcome is possible and he would 'never take that off the table', adding that bond market turmoil will not change how JPMorgan serves clients. JPMorgan uses AI agents internally but will not let outside agents in, and Dimon said regulators should prepare for bots and agents causing harm. Shares rose 0.17% to $332.01 after hours and are up 2.86% year to date.
- Apple Stock Price Prediction: Wall Street’s Next Big Surprise Could Be Closer Than You Think
24/7 Wall St. sets a 12-month price target of $391.86 for Apple (AAPL), 16.34% above the $336.83 reference price, and rates the stock a buy with high confidence. Wall Street’s consensus target of $328.09 sits below the current share price, even though Apple has beaten EPS estimates for nine straight quarters. In its fiscal Q3 report, Apple posted revenue of $109.42 billion, up 16.4%, with iPhone revenue of $54.25 billion, while management expects 9% to 11% growth next quarter, held back by supply limits. The bullish scenario points to $444.68, citing Siri AI, more than 2.5 billion active devices and $62.094 billion of buybacks over nine months, while the downside scenario is $333.54 as memory costs weigh on margins, which Tim Cook called a “100-year flood.” The article argues the positive thesis outweighs the negative one, as long as demand keeps running ahead of supply.
- Wall Street Can’t Stop Sizing Up A Tesla-SpaceX Merger
- Wall Street Agrees on Amazon and Can't Agree on Tesla. The Targets Show Why
Analysts overwhelmingly rate Amazon positively, with 16 Strong Buy, 43 Buy, 2 Hold and no Sell ratings, while Tesla is split with 21 Hold and 4 Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The article's model rates both stocks Buy, with 28.65% upside at 70% confidence for Amazon and 8.12% upside at 90% confidence for Tesla. Amazon's second-quarter revenue rose 19.6% to $200.61 billion and AWS grew 37%, while Tesla's EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.54 consensus as operating margin fell to 1.4%. Key risks include Amazon's $54.2 billion of second-quarter capex and Tesla's 391x trailing P/E and -$1.09 billion of free cash flow. The author says the Amazon view holds as long as AWS demand covers capex, while Tesla needs margins to recover.
Related markets
Latest news
- FinFET Technology - Global Strategic Business Report Just Released: AI and Data Centers Push FinFET Chip Market Toward $97 Billion
According to Research and Markets, the global FinFET technology market was valued at $38.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $97.1 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 16.7%. Demand for high-performance, energy-efficient chips across consumer electronics, data centers, automotive, AI and IoT is driving growth. The CPU segment is forecast to reach $36.6 billion by 2030, while China is the fastest-growing market, with an 18% CAGR and $20.8 billion by 2030. The report also assesses the impact of tariffs on semiconductor supply chains and profiles companies including TSMC, Samsung, Intel and NVIDIA.
- The sorrow of Europe's “big brother” economy: Bonds keep selling off heavily after a “turbulent weekend”
French 10-year government bond yields rose 0.14 percentage points to 4.93% after a turbulent weekend, while the spread over German bonds returned to 1.47 percentage points. Nationwide protests over rising living costs and student education conditions turned into widespread rioting and looting; the government said at least 3,000 shops and businesses were looted, and the French retail federation estimated damages could reach “several hundred million euros.” More than 2,500 people are under formal investigation, 67 of them detained, and several cities have imposed curfews. President Macron rejected Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez’s resignation offer, even though Nuñez admitted police were deployed too thinly for protests of over 550,000 people, against an expected 200,000. Opposition politicians and the mayors of Paris and Marseille criticized the government for letting police lose control of the situation.
- President Donald Trump Claims, "We Don't Have Inflation, and Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation," but a New Report Strongly Disagrees
Although the stock market has posted strong returns under President Trump, the article argues his inflation-driving policies may be the biggest threat to the AI-driven bull market. A New York Federal Reserve report by three economists finds that by February 2026, tariffs had added 2.9 percentage points to goods price inflation, and each percentage point increase in average tariffs lifted consumer prices by about a quarter of a point after one year. Beyond tariffs, the Iran war and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed fuel prices sharply higher, with fuel oil up 74.0% and gasoline up 34.2% over the past year, while overall CPI rose 3.7%. The article warns that persistent inflation could prompt the Fed to raise rates more aggressively, slowing AI infrastructure investment and sending stocks lower.
- Bitcoin ETFs just saw their biggest day in a month thanks entirely to BlackRock
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in $526.6 million on Monday, the largest daily net inflow in nearly a month, driven entirely by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which pulled in $665.2 million, its biggest daily inflow since Oct. 7 last year, according to SoSoValue data. Fidelity's FBTC lost $83.6 million and Grayscale's GBTC shed $54.9 million, while the remaining funds recorded no net flows. The inflow more than erased last week's $228.5 million of withdrawals, but funds remain about $90.5 million in net outflows for October, according to CoinDesk calculations. Ether funds moved the opposite way, losing $103.3 million in their fourth consecutive session of outflows, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for $95.4 million of that.
- A Big4 bank cut deposit rates in the morning, then raised them again in the afternoon
VietinBank cut its deposit rates for terms of 6 months and longer on the morning of Oct. 20, then restored them to pre-adjustment levels by the afternoon. Its afternoon rate board showed 3.5% per year for 6 to under 12 months, 5.9% for 12 to under 24 months and 6% for 24 months and longer, versus 3%, 5.4% and 5.5% in the morning. Rates for terms under 6 months stayed unchanged, including 2.1% for 1 to under 3 months and 2.4% for 3 to under 6 months. The move came as banks followed the State Bank of Vietnam's guidance to cut deposit rates by at least 0.5 percentage points for terms of 6 months and longer, and Vietcombank and Agribank were among those reducing rates.
- IVV vs. SPY: Which S&P 500 ETF Is the Better Buy for Long-Term Investors?
The article compares two ETFs that track the S&P 500, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which have nearly identical holdings. The main difference is the expense ratio: IVV charges 0.03% a year, one-third of SPY's 0.09%, and its distribution yield is about 1.1% versus 1% for SPY. SPY's high liquidity remains valuable for active traders. The article concludes that IVV is the better choice for long-term investors, since lower costs can compound over time.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.