The Fed kept its rate range at 3.75–4% at the October 28 meeting but left open the possibility of a rate hike in December. According to PGS.TS. Nguyễn Văn Phương, the impact would first hit the exchange rate and market expectations, and only then spread to capital flows and domestic interest rates. The most notable pressure is the exchange rate, as year-end USD demand could rise if importers buy early and exporters delay selling foreign currency, although the scale depends on export earnings, remittances and debt obligations. Higher USD yields could raise return requirements for investments in Vietnam, with portfolio flows reacting faster than direct investment. He said cutting VND rates too quickly while the exchange rate is under pressure could erode the benefit, but keeping rates high solely to protect the currency also carries costs.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Original headline: Fed giữ nguyên lãi suất: Áp lực nào đối với Việt Nam?
Keywords
Fedexchange ratesinterest ratescapital flowsVietnam
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
VNINDEX
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Vietnam stocks |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/29/2026 | 1,755.61 |
| Change that session | -0.62% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Dragon Capital CEO: Financial centre must make foreign currency inflows and outflows easy
At the 27 October session on attracting capital to financial centres during AEF 2026, Le Anh Tuan, CEO of Dragon Capital, said an international financial centre must ensure investors can bring USD in and move it back home smoothly. He noted diverging flows: FDI hit a record in the first nine months, with over USD 50 billion registered and USD 21 billion disbursed, while FII saw net outflows of USD 5 billion, and nearly USD 20 billion has been withdrawn from indirect investment over five years. He proposed that VIFC address three demands: access to products limited in the domestic market, easy currency hedging and transfers, and stable, clear and consistent regulations. VIFC-HCMC CEO Richard D. McClellan said the centre already has 10 founding members and the city plans to issue regulations in November. Talgat Amanbayev of AIFC in Kazakhstan noted that over eight years, AIFC attracted USD 27 billion in registered capital and disbursed USD 17 billion.
- Dragon Capital CEO: International financial centre must ensure 'easy inflows and outflows of foreign currency'
Dragon Capital CEO Lê Anh Tuấn says an international financial centre (VIFC) must ensure investors can bring USD in and move it back out easily, without procedural obstacles, at a session on October 27 within AEF 2026. He cites record 9-month FDI of over US$50 billion registered and US$21 billion disbursed, while FII recorded net outflows of US$5 billion, and nearly US$20 billion over five years. He argues that portfolio managers face regulatory, currency-hedging and daily procedural hurdles that create instability, and proposes that VIFC offer products that are hard to access domestically, easy FX hedging, USD-denominated derivatives and bonds, and stable, consistent rules. VIFC-HCMC director Richard D. McClellan said the centre has 10 initial members and offers a one-stop mechanism, USD-denominated contracts and free profit repatriation. Talgat Amanbayev of Astana's AIFC said that after eight years the centre had attracted US$27 billion in registered capital and disbursed US$17 billion.
- Fuelling Two-Digit Growth
The target of average GDP growth of 10% or more over 2026–2030 requires very large investment capital. According to Dr. Cấn Văn Lực, Chief Economist at BIDV, Vietnam needs to sustain growth in total social investment of about 13–15% a year, with total investment needs estimated at 280–300 billion USD a year, while the state budget is expected to cover only about 22%. The capital mix still relies heavily on banks, while the stock and corporate bond markets have not yet realised their potential, so developing channels outside bank lending is needed. Dr. Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Hà noted that as of the end of Q3 2026, public investment disbursement reached only 62.9% of plan (central agencies 44.1%, localities 73.6%), while investment capital grew 15% at current prices but only 7.6% at comparable prices. A narrowing government bond yield spread between Vietnam and the US could add pressure on foreign capital flows and the exchange rate, so flexible, controlled exchange rate management, stronger FX reserves and inflation control are needed.
- Philippine peso hits fresh record low - Xinhua
The Philippine peso closed at 63.06 per US dollar on Thursday, weaker than the previous record low of 62.90 on October 8, marking its 27th record low this year, according to the Bankers Association of the Philippines. It touched 63.15 in early trading. Ruben Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, linked the decline to stronger US inflation, which has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep borrowing costs high, boosting the dollar and Treasury yields and dampening appetite for emerging-market currencies. US consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier, above the 3.6% forecast, and investors are betting on another rate hike at the Oct. 27-28 policy meeting.
- Surprise rebound in remittances to Ho Chi Minh City
Remittances sent to Ho Chi Minh City in the third quarter reached nearly $2.84 billion, up 39.5% from the previous quarter and 3.6% year on year, signaling a recovery after two weak quarters. However, the nine-month total of nearly $6.87 billion still fell 13.8%, though the decline narrowed from 22.8% in the first half. Asia remained the largest source at $1.677 billion, or 59.1%, with the rebound driven mainly by the strengthening South Korean won and seasonal demand. The report said rising inflation and living costs in major economies, along with high USD interest rates that lead some overseas Vietnamese to keep savings abroad, weighed on transfers. If fourth-quarter inflows reach $2.6–2.9 billion, full-year remittances could be $9.5–9.8 billion, down 5.1–8% from $10.3 billion in 2025.
- Bitcoin Slips Ahead Of Fed Week, Big Tech Earnings: Analysts Divided On Where BTC Is Headed Next
Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 on Monday ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday and this week's earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, with crypto analysts divided on its next move. CME FedWatch shows traders pricing a 90.6% chance the Fed holds rates at 3.75% to 4% and a 9.4% chance of a hike to 4% to 4.25%. MN Fund founder Michael Van de Poppe said Bitcoin's 120% annualized return since 2011, versus 6% for gold, made the dip an opportunity and that investors could shift money back into gold in 1-2 years, while Ted Pillows said Bitcoin looked set to go lower and could see capitulation if it loses the $80,000 zone on the weekly chart. Bitcoin traded near $79,930, its lowest since mid-September, after U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded combined outflows of $773 million last week, per SoSoValue.
Related markets
Latest news
- State Bank of Vietnam clarifies non-cash payment rules for gold purchases and sales
Bảo Tín Minh Châu asked how the non-cash payment threshold applies when customers buy gold several times a day, including whether earlier cash sales would have to be reversed. The State Bank of Vietnam said Decree No. 390/2026/NĐ-CP, issued on 16/10/2026, requires non-cash payment for gold purchases and sales of 5 million VND or more per customer per day, not the 20 million VND the company cited. The threshold is based on the total daily value of a customer's gold transactions and applies to later transactions the same day, so splitting transactions or payments does not change the rule. The regulation aims to improve transparency, enable cash-flow tracing, and prevent tax evasion and money laundering.
- Alphabet, Amazon, SpaceX, Microsoft, Broadcom, and AMD Are Counting on Anthropic's IPO. Not All Their Contracts Are Equal.
Anthropic's S-1 filing shows Google Cloud has a minimum commitment of $114.5 billion from April 2026 to July 2033, while Amazon's compute commitment is $110 billion from May 2026 to April 2036, both regardless of actual usage. Amazon and Alphabet are also major Anthropic investors, with Amazon's $13 billion investment valued at $190.4 billion at the end of June and Alphabet having invested at least $13.3 billion. The SpaceX deal of up to $120.5 billion can be terminated by either party with 90 days' notice once its initial periods end in January and March. Microsoft is committed to at least $44.9 billion in cloud compute, while Broadcom has about $161.2 billion in aggregate rent payments, excluding interest, under five-year TPU equipment leases. AMD's deal has no fixed dollar commitment, but Anthropic expects to spend over $20 billion if it obtains the full initial capacity.
- Premarket movers: Microsoft rises; Alphabet drags software stocks lower
U.S. technology stocks diverged in premarket trading: Microsoft rose about 2.8% after fiscal first-quarter results beat expectations, with earnings of $4.89 per share on revenue of $92.28 billion and Azure revenue up 48%. Alphabet fell more than 10% after third-quarter EPS of $2.12 missed the $3.02 consensus, though revenue rose 25% to $127.6 billion, and Google search ad revenue grew at its slowest pace in five quarters. Software stocks also tumbled after weak results from Fortinet (down around 25%) and ServiceNow (down 18.1%), intensifying concerns that AI models could disrupt traditional software business models. Marvell fell 9.5% after Bloomberg reported it was in advanced talks to acquire Lumentum, while Caterpillar dropped 9.7% despite a sharp rise in third-quarter profit.
- Musk's Massive Marketing Miss Cost $10 Trillion
The article argues Tesla has missed a major marketing opportunity by not offering families with children a free 30-minute FSD ride, even though the author sees FSD as central to Tesla's value. Citing Tesla's own figures (not an independent audit), FSD-equipped cars go about 6.0 million miles between major collisions versus the U.S. average of one every 660,000 miles, and Tesla reports 1.74 million active FSD subscriptions worldwide. Tesla earlier launched 'Tesla Ride', but it is limited to some U.S. areas, requires living near a Tesla store, and requires the driver to be 21 or older. The author concludes that demand for FSD experiences already exists, yet Tesla has not promoted the offer widely.
- How Tesla Blundered
The analysis argues Tesla missed an EV 'iPhone moment': it had 79% of US electric car sales in 2020, but deliveries slid from 1.81 million in 2023 to 1.79 million in 2024 and 1.64 million in 2025. A roughly $25,000 model was shelved in April 2024, and the cheaper versions launched in October 2025 cost $37,000 to $40,000, with 98% of last quarter's 486,532 deliveries still Model 3 or Model Y. Tesla's 1.74 million active FSD subscriptions in Q3 2026 equal fewer than 1 in 170 of America's roughly 298 million registered vehicles. The article also cites BYD's 2.26 million EV sales last year, the end of the $7,500 US tax credit in September 2025, and a buyer backlash over Musk's politics. Tesla still sells 54% of America's electric cars, the article notes.
- Lumentum stock jumps on report of possible merger with Marvell
Marvell (MRVL) stock fell 11% on Thursday after reports the AI chipmaker is in advanced talks to buy optical parts maker Lumentum (LITE), while Lumentum shares rose 5%. Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reported the potential multibillion-dollar deal could be announced as soon as next week. Lumentum has a market value of about $83 billion, versus roughly $221 billion for Marvell. The acquisition would give Marvell greater access to optical technologies and manufacturing capacity, which the article describes as critical bottlenecks in AI infrastructure. Marvell shares are up more than 190% year to date, and Lumentum shares have rallied 140%.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.