NDB Wealth Management expects gold to stay between $4,200 and $5,000 an ounce over the next 12–24 months, driven increasingly by central bank and Asian demand rather than US interest rates. Gold was trading at $4,118.91 at filing, down $5.82 or 0.14%. Central banks bought 289 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, and Asian gold funds took in nearly 70 tonnes of net inflows in the first half of the year, a record, while North American funds saw about 61 tonnes of outflows. Mine output is forecast to rise only 2.4% to 3,907 tonnes in 2026. The base case, given a 50% probability, could shift if Gulf peace, easing inflation or a pause in US rate hikes push prices lower, or if concerns over US finances and Fed independence push them higher.
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Related tickers and likely impact
XAU/USD
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: medium
| Market | Gold |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/20/2026 | 4,125.21 |
| Change that session | -0.38% |
PAXG/USDT
▲ Likely positivePAX Gold
Relevance: medium
| Market | Crypto |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Binance |
| Sector | Real-world assets |
| Market cap | $1.8B |
| Close on 10/20/2026 | 4,122.25 |
| Change that session | -0.28% |
XAUT/USDT
▲ Likely positiveTether Gold
Relevance: medium
| Market | Crypto |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Binance |
| Sector | Real-world assets |
| Market cap | $3.4B |
| Close on 10/20/2026 | 4,116.60 |
| Change that session | -0.42% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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NDB Wealth Management says gold could trade between USD 4,200 and USD 5,000 per ounce over the next 12-24 months under its base case, which it assigns a 50% probability, as central bank buying and Asian demand increasingly drive the market rather than US rates. At the time of the report, gold traded at USD 4,118.91 per ounce, down USD 5.82 or 0.14%. Central banks bought 289 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, while Asian gold funds recorded net inflows of nearly 70 tonnes in the first half, a record, and North American funds saw outflows of about 61 tonnes. A lasting peace in the Gulf, easing inflation or a pause in US rate hikes could push prices lower, while concerns over US government finances and Fed independence could drive gains.
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NDB Wealth Management's report says gold could stay between USD 4,200 and USD 5,000 per ounce over the next 12–24 months, with central bank purchases and strong Asian investor demand increasingly driving prices rather than US interest rate moves. At the time of filing, gold traded at USD 4,118.91 per ounce, down 0.14%. Central banks bought 289 tonnes in Q2 2026, and Asian gold funds saw net inflows of nearly 70 tonnes in H1, their strongest first half on record, while North American funds recorded outflows of around 61 tonnes. The base case, given a 50% probability, sees prices in the USD 4,200–5,000 range, supported by limited supply growth, with mine output forecast to rise just 2.4% to 3,907 tonnes in 2026. Lasting peace in the Gulf, easing inflation and a pause in US rate hikes could push prices lower, while concerns over US government finances and Fed independence could lift them.
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