According to FactSet, S&P 500 third-quarter 2026 earnings are expected to grow 29.5% year over year, which would be the third straight quarter of growth above 25%. The index closed at 7,743.98 on Oct. 28, less than 1% below its record close on Oct. 6. Since 2009, FactSet data shows only two earlier streaks: from the fourth quarter of 2009 through the third quarter of 2010, and all four quarters of 2021. After the first streak the index rose about 17% over the next 12 months, while after the 2021 streak it fell about 15%. The author argues that this time the index is growing fast on top of a year that was already growing rather than rebounding from a recession, and that some second-quarter gains from Alphabet and Amazon may not repeat. The forward P/E is 18.7, below its five-year average of 19.8, but the author says this does not make the index cheap.
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SPY
▲ Likely positiveSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/30/2026 | 755.71 |
| Change that session | -1.77% |
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