The S&P 500 closed at 7,757.17 on Oct. 21, about 0.8% below its record close of 7,818.93 on Oct. 6, with around 10 weeks left in the year. The index is up about 13% in 2026, even after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate in September for the first time in over three years. Reviewing daily closes back to 1928, the author found 16 years in which the index was within 1% of a record on Oct. 21, and all 16 set at least one new record close before year-end. A new high did not guarantee a strong finish, however: from Oct. 21 to year-end the index fell in 1964 and 1968, and the median year gained about 4%. The article also flags risks, including the 10-year Treasury yield topping 5.3% in early October and a rally concentrated in a narrow set of AI-linked stocks.
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Original headline: The S & P 500 Is Just Shy of a Record With 10 Weeks Left in the Year . Here What History Says Could Happen Next .
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SPY
▲ Likely positiveSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 763.96 |
| Change that session | -1.18% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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