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IEA warns tight diesel supplies could stretch well into 2027

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    Heating oil has risen 127% over the past year, leading an energy-driven commodity rally, while gold, lumber and coffee have fallen. Brent crude is up 80%, gasoline 79% and WTI 77%, while copper and sugar are each up 32% and wheat 31%. The article says this energy-led cost pressure could persist into consumer prices in the coming months, and affect refiner margins and inflation-sensitive fixed-income holdings.

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    Tech stocks lost more than $1 trillion in value on Friday as oil prices climbed to their highest since May, with the Nasdaq 100 down 2.5% and about 7% below its recent all-time high. Brent crude briefly topped $110 per barrel, while U.S. crude closed at $101.41, the first close above $100 since September. Diesel prices rose faster than gasoline as Ukrainian attacks knocked out much of Russia's refining capacity, while U.S. and European refineries are already running near maximum output. The article says higher energy prices raise the chance the Federal Reserve raises rates again this year, and that diesel costs are a key inflation issue for President Trump before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. A bill to block a U.S.-Russia diesel deal was introduced but has little chance in the Republican-controlled House, and Wells Fargo analyst Mason Mendez expects inventory rebuilding to keep energy prices elevated into 2027.

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  • IEA warns tight diesel supplies could stretch well into 2027

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that tight diesel supplies could persist well into 2027, as record diesel prices threaten to fuel inflation and slow economic growth. Middle East and Russian diesel exports fell by a combined 1.3 million barrels per day in September, about 4.5 percent of forecast global diesel and gasoil demand this year. Diesel refining margins surged to a record of almost $95 per barrel that month as reduced refining capacity cut output. IEA members have pledged 426 million barrels from emergency reserves, with about 100 million barrels still to be released, and its governing board meets Thursday to decide details. The agency expects a surplus to return in 2027 but warned that recent attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and tanker traffic could derail the recovery.

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