The U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3 could leave Congress divided from January 2027, with Polymarket traders giving a 63% chance that Democrats retake both chambers and a 29% chance that Republicans keep the Senate but lose the House. Retirement Researcher data from 1926 through 2023 show the S&P 500 averaged a 7.33% annual return under a Republican president facing a divided Congress, well below the 14.01% to 16.63% averages in the other three scenarios analyzed. The article argues that stocks still outperform bonds, commodities and real estate over the long term, and that legislative gridlock can give investors a sense of predictability because major laws are less likely to pass. It notes that the stock market has historically continued to rise in the long run regardless of how political power is arranged.
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midterm electionsS&P 500Democratic Partybonds
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Related tickers and likely impact
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/21/2026 | 773.09 |
| Change that session | +0.53% |
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/21/2026 | 725.20 |
| Change that session | +1.05% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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