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- Oil , foreign flows in focus for rupee ; bond traders eye rate - hike bets
The Indian rupee is expected to hold steady in a holiday-shortened week, with oil prices and foreign portfolio flows in focus. Last week it gained 2%, its best week since March, closing at 94.96 on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India rolled out measures to support the currency. Traders see the rupee trading between 94–95.50 in the near term. Indian government bonds may face mild selling as fears of a bigger rate hike grow, with the 10-year yield, which ended at 7.3789% after a ninth straight weekly rise, expected to move between 7.32% and 7.42%. Following hawkish comments from Governor Sanjay Malhotra, calls for a 50-bps rate hike in December have increased.
- Bajaj Broking Weekly FII and DII Commentary for 10th October 2026
The Nifty snapped an eight-week decline to close marginally higher, but still formed a fresh 52-week low, as the RBI raised rates by 25 basis points and shifted to “calibrated tightening”. Brent crude above $100, higher US bond yields and a weaker rupee kept sentiment under pressure, with FIIs net sellers for an eighth straight week (Rs. 302.94bn) while DIIs bought Rs. 303.13bn to absorb the selling. The index closed the week at 22,520.45, up 0.4%, though it is down 0.44% month-to-date. The analysis expects volatility to persist amid FII selling and global headwinds, with strong domestic buying limiting downside. Investors will watch US and Indian inflation data, US bond yields, Brent prices and US-Iran tensions next week.
- FPIs will return to Indian equities despite sustained outflows : HDFC AMC CEO
HDFC AMC CEO Navneet Munot said on Friday that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) will eventually return as net buyers of Indian equities, citing strong long-term economic fundamentals despite months of sustained selling. He attributed the outflows to elevated global interest rates, high crude oil prices and concerns over emerging market investments, while noting that foreign investors still take part in select IPOs. According to NSDL data, FPIs withdrew Rs 44,166 crore in October up to October 11, pushing total 2026 outflows above Rs 3 lakh crore. Domestic institutional investors remain an important source of support. The same day, HDFC Mutual Fund listed its FTSE India Equity ETF on the NSE, tracking an index of 272 large- and mid-cap stocks.
- Rupee hits six-week high, surges 53 paise to 94.38 against dollar on Jio IPO inflows, RBI support
The rupee rose 53 paise to close at 94.38 against the US dollar on Wednesday, its strongest level in six weeks, as foreign currency inflows tied to Reliance Industries' Jio Platforms IPO and RBI intervention offset weak domestic equities and elevated crude oil prices. The Rs 30,213-crore IPO was fully subscribed within 100 minutes of opening and reached 3.16 times subscription overall, with qualified institutional buyers subscribing 9.42 times their reserved portion. Analysts noted that foreign investors typically sell dollars to buy rupees when joining large IPOs, which increases dollar supply, while the RBI acted to curb spot-market dollar demand from oil companies and excessive volatility.
- FPIs pull out Rs 52,100 crore from equities in Oct so far amid global headwinds
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn Rs 52,100 crore from Indian equities in October so far, after a net outflow of Rs 35,861 crore in September. Cumulative outflows in 2026 have reached Rs 3.12 lakh crore, well above the Rs 1.66 lakh crore withdrawn in all of 2025. Analysts attribute the selling to high crude oil prices, higher US bond yields, a stronger dollar and sticky US inflation that has raised expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. FPIs turned marginal buyers on October 16, a move seen as tactical rather than a structural shift. They continued to sell financial services and oil-related stocks while buying consumer services, digital platforms, healthcare and other sectors.
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