The chance of a fifth rate rise this year on 3 November, Melbourne Cup day, jumped from 30% to 45% after RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser warned of “hard choices” and a “materially worse” inflation outlook. Hauser said some Australians were doubting the RBA could bring inflation back to its 2.5% target, and that a growing share of businesses saw 3.5% as the “new normal.” If delivered, a hike would lift the cash rate target to 4.85% from 4.6%, its highest level since the global financial crisis. AMP’s Diana Mousina still found a November hike hard to see given weakening jobs data, saying next week’s inflation figures would likely decide the outcome.
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Original headline: Odds of fifth interest rate hike this year likely to shorten as RBA deputy warns inflation outlook worsening | Reserve Bank of Australia
Read the original on theguardian.com ↗
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AUD/USD
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: medium
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/20/2026 | 0.70040 |
| Change that session | +0.35% |
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