Precious metal prices have fallen sharply from their end-of-January peak, with gold down more than 20% and silver, platinum and palladium down more than 40% between late January and mid-October. The biggest factor is a shift in expectations from rate cuts to rate hikes, which followed the news of Kevin Warsh's nomination to lead the Federal Reserve; the Warsh Fed ended its easing bias in June, raised rates in September and signaled more could follow. Markets now price multiple rate hikes over the next 12 to 24 months, yet prices remain 24% to 100% above early 2025 levels depending on the metal. The article cites four supporting factors: large budget deficits, inflation above targets in most economies, Middle East war risks, and central-bank gold buying since 2008. The CBO estimates a U.S. budget deficit of 6.6% of GDP for the fiscal year ending September 2027, while the cost of servicing federal debt has risen from 1.2% to 3.4% of GDP.
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Related tickers and likely impact
PAXG/USDT
• NeutralPAX Gold
Relevance: medium
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| Sector | Real-world assets |
| Market cap | $1.8B |
| Close on 10/25/2026 | 4,010.98 |
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XAUT/USDT
• NeutralTether Gold
Relevance: medium
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XAU/USD
• NeutralRelevance: medium
| Market | Gold |
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| Close on 10/23/2026 | 3,995.78 |
| Change that session | -0.72% |
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