The author predicts the stock market will soar in the months after the midterm elections on Nov. 3 in the U.S., though he has plenty of reservations about the current market, particularly given AI and the bull market nearing its fourth year. According to JPMorgan, since 1950 the S&P 500 has been positive over the 12 months following every midterm election, with an average gain of roughly 15%, but since the turn of the century the index has rarely hit that average. Kalshi gives Democrats over a 91% chance of reclaiming the House and a 67% chance of taking the Senate. The author says a Democratic-controlled Congress could make it harder for President Donald Trump to continue the Iran war, and a quicker end would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring gas prices and inflation down, though such a Congress may oppose data centers critical to AI. He also argues that political gridlock could limit major legislation that catches the market off guard, since Trump retains veto power.
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midterm electionsS&P 500Donald TrumpDemocratic Party
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Related tickers and likely impact
NVDA
▲ Likely positiveNvidia
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Market cap | $5.2T |
| Close on 10/23/2026 | 211.00 |
| Change that session | -0.57% |
QQQ
▲ Likely positiveInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/23/2026 | 704.39 |
| Change that session | -0.01% |
SPY
▲ Likely positiveSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/23/2026 | 759.85 |
| Change that session | -0.54% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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