The ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q4 2026, conducted 2–7 October with 52 responses, puts headline inflation expectations at 3.0% for 2026, 2.6% for 2027 and 2.0% for 2028, revised up by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points for 2026 and 2027. Longer-term inflation expectations for 2031 remain at 2.0%, and the upward revisions are attributed mainly to higher energy prices and their indirect effects, with second-round effects expected to remain limited. Real GDP growth expectations are 1.0% for 2026 and 1.3% for both 2027 and 2028, with the 2026 forecast revised up 0.4 percentage points, while unemployment is expected at 6.4% in 2026, easing to 6.1% over the longer term. Respondents see the additional effects of the Middle East war's energy price shock mainly arriving in 2027, with inflation risks tilted to the upside for 2026–28 and GDP risks tilted somewhat to the downside. The survey does not represent the views of ECB decision-makers or staff, and the next Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections will be published on 18 December 2026.
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EUR/USD
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/29/2026 | 1.11822 |
| Change that session | +0.25% |
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