Since 1950, the S&P 500 was higher one year after Election Day in all 19 U.S. midterm cycles, averaging about 15% by the author's count (BNY's study put it at 16.6%). Buying two weeks before the vote made only a small difference: the index rose in 14 of 19 cycles, gaining about 1.4% on average over those two weeks. An investor who bought two weeks early and held for a year came out ahead in all 19 cycles, averaging about 17% versus about 15% for those who waited until Election Day. The index now sits about 2% below its record close of 7,818.93 on Oct. 6 after its worst week since June, yet it is still up around 12% in 2026. The author wouldn't hold back cash for the midterms, while noting that 19 cycles is a small sample and a year's returns depend on many other factors.
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Related tickers and likely impact
QQQ
• NeutralInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 718.36 |
| Change that session | +1.21% |
SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 766.48 |
| Change that session | +0.42% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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